PREDICTION CONTEST - 2023 European Indoor Championships (Thu 2 - Sun 5 March)

[LuckySpikes]

Final Contest Results

First, the traditional Honorary Awards (the Athletics Weekly entry was not eligible for these awards) ...

Top Part 1 "British medalists" scorer - Laps who correctly predicted 5 medalists with just one prediction missing the mark.
Top Part 2 "Predict the Medalists" scorer - Teapot019 with 202 points which was 4 better than the next best.
Top Part 3 "Predict the Winning Marks" scorer - Balgair with 216 points which was 4 better than the next best.
Best Part 1 "British medalists" pick - This award is shared by Ladyloz and Laps for being the only contestants to pick Melissa Courtney-Bryant to medal.
Best Part 2 full podium picks - The full 1-2-3 was correctly predicted by one or more contestants in 9 of the 26 events (3 men's & 6 women's). In 4 of those events there was just one contestant correctly predicting the podium so the award is shared by Laps for Tentoglou, Montler, Bitan, oxfan for Murto, Sutej, Svabikova and by Ladyloz who uniquely predicted 2 full podiums correctly - Guttormsen, Karalis, Lisek and also Hodgkinson, Horvat, Raharolahy. oxfan, please stay on the stage ...
Best Part 2 individual medal picks - This award goes to oxfan for a collection of unique gold medal predictions - 5 contestants picked Adrian Ben to medal in the 800 but only oxfan picked him to win and all but one contestant picked Danismaz to medal in the TJ but again oxfan was the only contestant to pick her to win. oxfan was also the only contestant to correctly pick Murto to win the PV so this award is very well deserved.
Honourable mentions go to LuckySpikes for Italy's silver in the Women's 4x400, one of only 2 contestants to pick them to medal; Balgair, likewise with Szymanski's silver in the 60 Hurdles and also for being the only contestant to predict Tabashnyk to medal in the HJ; marilyn1 for Bibic's bronze in the 3000, one of only two contestants to pick him to medal; Occasional Hope for predicting Gambetta to medal in the Shot Put, Teapot019 for picking Iapichino to win a medal in the Long Jump and Laps for predicting a medal for Ennaoui in the 1500. The unique picks of Bitan (LJ) by Laps and Lisek & Raharolahy (800) by Ladyloz also qualify for honourable mentions.

From here on I have dropped the honorary award for Best Part 3 "Winning Mark" prediction since it is often too difficult to judge.

OK, on to the final results. Drum roll, please ... ...

GOLD Laps ... 48 + 198 + 212 = 458
SILVER oxfan ... 36 + 194 + 192 = 422
BRONZE Ladyloz ... 24 + 198 + 192 = 414
4 Lucky Spikes ... 12 + 186 + 208 = 406
5 Balgair ... 12 + 174 + 216 = 402
- Athletics Weekly ... 12 + 202 + 176 = 390
6 marilyn1 ... 12 + 176 + 192 = 380
7 Teapot019 ... -12 + 202 + 180 = 370
8 Occasional Hope ... 0 + 182 + 164 = 346

Congratulations to our European Indoor champion Laps, successfully defending the title from 2021 European Indoors. No-one was able to handle that big surge early in the race!
Well done also to our other medalists. oxfan put in a tremendous Sofia Ennaoui-esque finish (think Ennaoui before these championships) to rise from 6th to 2nd! A lesson to all perhaps, that it's not over until it's over. I think I'm correct in saying that it's the first time oxfan has medalled in these contests so it's a big breakthough performance. By contrast, that's a fifth consecutive medal for Ladyloz - a fine achievement but each time missing out on the top step of the podium! However, any chance of the silver on this occasion was hindered by a failure to specify winning marks for both relays (I didn't notice until too late so I couldn't point it out).

It's worth noting that more than half our field beat the Athletics Weekly predictions!

Interesting to look at the points totals. On first impression, one might think the Part 1 scores didn't contribute much to the overall scores. However, the differential in points between the top and bottom performers on that part was, at 60 points, actually bigger than the top-to-bottom differentials on parts 2 and 3.

OK, thankyou to everyone for playing. It's been fun again and personally I'm encouraged that I may be close to getting back to my 2021 medal-winning form!

Our next contest will be for the World Championships in August.

[LuckySpikes]

Final day scores:

oxfan ... 24 + 84 + 108 = 216
Laps ... 12 + 84 + 104 = 200
Ladyloz ... 12 + 90 + 84 = 186
marilyn1 ... 0 + 84 + 100 = 184
Lucky Spikes ... 0 + 86 + 92 = 178
Balgair ... 12 + 84 + 80 = 176
Athletics Weekly ... 0 + 94 + 80 = 174
Teapot019 ... -12 + 92 + 72 = 152
Occasional Hope ... -12 + 74 + 88 = 150

[Occasional Hope]

Oh dear, what a dismal performance by me, Gambetta aside.

[LuckySpikes]

SCORE CORRECTION:

After a recount of Laps's Part 3 score it turns out that Laps score should be 220, resulting in a total score of 466.

So, we all got whopped by even more than we first thought!

[Ladyloz]

Forever Tina Sutej, there or thereabouts but always letting the opportunity of gold come and go.

[marilyn1]

Many thanks, Lucky, for your dedicated efforts this w/e.
At least I recovered a tiny bit after a shocking start. Congrats to our worthy winner, Laps; will need to keep an eye on his predictions for the WC in August !!

[oxfan]

First Lucky thanks for organising this
And I am amazed to get a medal this time around particularly after the start
I think Murto might be a championship performer but the other unique gold medallists were lucky!

[Laps]

Very many thanks for all your organisation and hard work Lucky. A very enjoyable contest.
Its intriguing to see what selections people make. The fact that most of us beat the Athletics Weekly predictions tell you we set a good pace. Though AW predictions are for a different purpose.
Congrats to oxfan and to Ladyloz especially on her fifth medal. Gold can only be around the corner.
Delighted to have held on to my title for now. Gets me interested in all the events which wouldn't happen otherwise.. Even a woman shot putter falling out of the front of the circle can bring a cheer.

Sorry Lucky but BTW 266+200 = 466

[LuckySpikes]

Hmm, when I did the recount of the whole contest it came to 458 - I must have credited you with 8 points too many in the first 2 days.

[Laps]

For times/distances I have these figures in event order :-
16 8 8 16 0 4 16 4 8 4 4 12 16 12 8 0 12 4 12 8 12 16 12 8 0 0 = 220

Don't worry though, it doesn't make any difference.

[LuckySpikes]

I have checked again and yes, you are correct. I have acknowledged this in the Comments on the Final Contest Results post.

When doing the recount I failed to notice that 458 didn't match 266 + 200 so it didn't trigger a second recount of your score at the time. I'm 99.9% certain that everyone else's scores are correct.

[Stew-Coach]

I don't participate as I have a tendency to always support underdogs and go for the long shots, id simply lose every time

[Laps]

What I think you need for this compo is the polar opposite of the BBC approach to athletics i.e. unrealistic expectations, GB biased, seriously dumbed down analysis, emotional. This gives a different perspective on what you are watching which is enlightening and still fun, particularly if you can laugh when you get it wrong.

[Balgair]

Thanks for organising this again, it's great fun participating and it's what finally dragged me out of lurkdom last year - congrats to the winners! 🙂

Some of my selections were so far out, at least most of us had Ordonez and Ehammer, but going for the ever-reliable Martinot-Lagarde and Stefanidi backfired, as did failing to realise Joseph's form wasn't just a flash in the pan, thinking Murto's form didn't look great, and being too optimistic about some GB chances.

Mens PV to me had about 10 potential medallists, it's really competitive this year (minus Duplantis, obviously) so I was amazed Ladyloz got them perfectly (especially Lisek, who's been off form for a few years now), massive well done for that one!

[LuckySpikes]

Yeah, I too looked at Murto's form and didn't pick her to medal based on how she had dropped off since her 4.75 early in the indoor season. But, maybe oxfan is right about her.