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PREDICTION CONTEST - 2023 European Indoor Championships (Thu 2 - Sun 5 March)
Yep, it's time again for a few egos to be bruised! 😁
Please note below the requested format for posting your entry - it really does help me zip through tallying the scores if the info is in the same order for all contestants.
The final entry lists for the championships are available via https://www.european-athletics.com/n...-championships
Please note that a few countries have also entered Reserves but these are not denoted as such on the entry lists. I have listed all of these in post # 2 below.
In post # 2 I have also linked to where you can find the EA previews of events.
Post # 2 is also where any significant withdrawals will be listed. If anyone spots any, please post the info in this thread. I will also endeavour to keep an eye open.
Please check those lists in post # 2 before submitting your contest entry and, if necessary, amend it before clicking the "Post" button.
If you need any clarification on anything, please ask away!
Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH MEDALISTS
Predict which British athletes you think will win a medal of any colour.
For the relay teams, you don't need to name the individual athletes, you just need to say "Great Britain" if you think they will win a medal.
For context, the number of medals won by GBR & NI in previous European Indoor Championships is:
2021 - 12
2019 - 12
2017 - 10
2015 - 9
2013 - 8
2011 - 9
Scoring
Remember there is some jeopardy involved, so while you will score 12 points for each correct prediction, you will also lose 12 points for each incorrect prediction.
Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for all 26 events.
Please order the events for each sex as follows:
60
400
800
1500
3000
60 Hurdles
High Jump
Pole Vault
Long Jump
Triple Jump
Shot Put
Heptathlon / Pentathlon
4 x 400
As per the vote after the 2022 Eugene Prediction Contest, you are not allowed to name reserve medalists in case of withdrawals.
Scoring
6 points - Correct gold medal prediction
4 points - Correct silver medal prediction
4 points - Correct bronze medal prediction
2 points - any medalist predicted as medalling but not in the correct podium position
So, for each event there is a maximum of 14 points available.
Part 3 - PREDICT THE WINNING MARKS
Predict the winning mark for each of the 26 events above.
Scoring
This will be done mostly on a percentage basis - see below for the exceptions.
There are 16 points available for each event.
For track events ...
4 points scored if you are within 1% but greater than 0.7% either side of the winning mark
8 points if you are within 0.7% but greater than 0.4% away
12 points if you are within 0.4% away but greater than 0.1% away (or the standard range specified below)
16 points if you are within 0.1% away or exactly correct - with the exception of the 60m & 60m Hurdles (requires exact prediction) and 400m (standard 0.05s either side)
For field events & Multi events ...
Scoring is the same but the percentages you can be within are doubled, so 4 points = 2% to 1.4% away; 8 points = 1.4% to 0.8%; 12 points = 0.8% to 0.2%; 16 points = within 0.2% either side for Hep/Pent, 4cm either side for Shot Put, 3cm either side for Triple Jump, 2cm either side for Long Jump, and exact prediction required for Pole Vault and High Jump.
Don't worry if it's more confusing than it used to be. Just carry on as usual because I've got it all under control !
Some examples ...
If the Women's 800 is won in 2:00.00, the scoring would be as follows:
4 points for a prediction in the 1:58.80 to 1:59.15 range or in the 2:00.85 to 2:01.20 range
8 points for a prediction in the 1:59.16 to 1:59.51 range or in the 2:00.49 to 2:00.84 range
12 points for a prediction in the 1:59.52 to 1:59.87 range or in the 2:00.13 to 2:00.48 range
16 points for a prediction in the 1:59.88 to 2:00.12 range
If the Men's Long Jump is won with 8.00, the scoring would be as follows:
4 points for a prediction in the 8.12 to 8.16 range or in the 7.84 to 7.88 range
8 points for a prediction in the 8.07 to 8.11 range or in the 7.89 to 7.93 range
12 points for a prediction in the 8.03 to 8.06 range or in the 7.94 to 7.97 range
16 points for a prediction in the 7.98 to 8.02 range
TIEBREAKER
Predict the number of British athletes who leave the Championships with a PB.
If an athlete PBs twice or more in their event that counts as only 1 PB. If the British Record is broken in the 4x400 that counts as 1 PB. In the multi-events, PBs in individual events do not count, only a final score PB counts. Equalling a PB does count as a PB.
The tiebreaker will only be used, if necessary, to determine our Gold Medal winner.
FORMAT OF YOUR ENTRY
For Part 1, please post all your Men's British medalist picks first and then your Women's, and put them in some sort of conventional event order (following the order in Part 2?)
For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line, e.g.,
W 800: Hodgkinson, Boffey, Bello - 1:55.81
...
Please check that for Parts 2 & 3 you have predicted all 26 events.
If any athletes in an event share a surname, please be clear about which athlete you are picking.
CLOSING TIME FOR ENTRIES & EDITING YOUR ENTRY
The closing time for your entry is 3.45pm UK time on Thursday 2nd March - that's 15 minutes before the first event is due to start. Up to that point you can edit your predictions as many times as you wish. Edits can not be made after the closing time.
I remember before the Olympic Prediction Contest that a few people had problems editing posts (getting the dreaded "Unapproved"!) so, if you're wary of doing that, please instead communicate your edit via a "Comment" on your original post. It helps me enormously if the whole of your contest entry is contained within one post.
Note, if you do brave it and edit your actual post ... If editing more than once, err on the side of caution and leave at least an hour between edits to (hopefully) avoid the forum software flagging your post as "Unapproved".
OTHER INFO
If any of your Part 1 predictions does not start the championships in your specified event you will not be deducted points for that athlete's failure to win a medal. This includes athletes who get injured in the warm-up.
Interim contest scores will be posted after:
- Friday (7 of 26 events completed)
- Saturday (13 of 26 events completed)
The final contest standings will be posted on Monday 6th March.
I do double-check the scoring but if you think I've still made an error, please do not hesitate to query it.
FORM GUIDE?
2022 European Championships
1 Balgair
2 Ladyloz
3 marra
2022 World Championships
1 trickstat
2 Laps
3= Ladyloz
3= marra
2022 World Indoors
1 Laps
2 Occasional Hope
3 Ladyloz
2021 Olympics (record participation of 17 contestants)
1 Walsh7
2 LuckySpikes
3= philipo (AKA marilyn1)
3= Ladyloz
2021 European Indoors
1 Laps
2 Occasional Hope
3 LuckySpikes
OK, that's it. Best of luck everyone!
Please note below the requested format for posting your entry - it really does help me zip through tallying the scores if the info is in the same order for all contestants.
The final entry lists for the championships are available via https://www.european-athletics.com/n...-championships
Please note that a few countries have also entered Reserves but these are not denoted as such on the entry lists. I have listed all of these in post # 2 below.
In post # 2 I have also linked to where you can find the EA previews of events.
Post # 2 is also where any significant withdrawals will be listed. If anyone spots any, please post the info in this thread. I will also endeavour to keep an eye open.
Please check those lists in post # 2 before submitting your contest entry and, if necessary, amend it before clicking the "Post" button.
If you need any clarification on anything, please ask away!
Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH MEDALISTS
Predict which British athletes you think will win a medal of any colour.
For the relay teams, you don't need to name the individual athletes, you just need to say "Great Britain" if you think they will win a medal.
For context, the number of medals won by GBR & NI in previous European Indoor Championships is:
2021 - 12
2019 - 12
2017 - 10
2015 - 9
2013 - 8
2011 - 9
Scoring
Remember there is some jeopardy involved, so while you will score 12 points for each correct prediction, you will also lose 12 points for each incorrect prediction.
Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for all 26 events.
Please order the events for each sex as follows:
60
400
800
1500
3000
60 Hurdles
High Jump
Pole Vault
Long Jump
Triple Jump
Shot Put
Heptathlon / Pentathlon
4 x 400
As per the vote after the 2022 Eugene Prediction Contest, you are not allowed to name reserve medalists in case of withdrawals.
Scoring
6 points - Correct gold medal prediction
4 points - Correct silver medal prediction
4 points - Correct bronze medal prediction
2 points - any medalist predicted as medalling but not in the correct podium position
So, for each event there is a maximum of 14 points available.
Part 3 - PREDICT THE WINNING MARKS
Predict the winning mark for each of the 26 events above.
Scoring
This will be done mostly on a percentage basis - see below for the exceptions.
There are 16 points available for each event.
For track events ...
4 points scored if you are within 1% but greater than 0.7% either side of the winning mark
8 points if you are within 0.7% but greater than 0.4% away
12 points if you are within 0.4% away but greater than 0.1% away (or the standard range specified below)
16 points if you are within 0.1% away or exactly correct - with the exception of the 60m & 60m Hurdles (requires exact prediction) and 400m (standard 0.05s either side)
For field events & Multi events ...
Scoring is the same but the percentages you can be within are doubled, so 4 points = 2% to 1.4% away; 8 points = 1.4% to 0.8%; 12 points = 0.8% to 0.2%; 16 points = within 0.2% either side for Hep/Pent, 4cm either side for Shot Put, 3cm either side for Triple Jump, 2cm either side for Long Jump, and exact prediction required for Pole Vault and High Jump.
Don't worry if it's more confusing than it used to be. Just carry on as usual because I've got it all under control !
Some examples ...
If the Women's 800 is won in 2:00.00, the scoring would be as follows:
4 points for a prediction in the 1:58.80 to 1:59.15 range or in the 2:00.85 to 2:01.20 range
8 points for a prediction in the 1:59.16 to 1:59.51 range or in the 2:00.49 to 2:00.84 range
12 points for a prediction in the 1:59.52 to 1:59.87 range or in the 2:00.13 to 2:00.48 range
16 points for a prediction in the 1:59.88 to 2:00.12 range
If the Men's Long Jump is won with 8.00, the scoring would be as follows:
4 points for a prediction in the 8.12 to 8.16 range or in the 7.84 to 7.88 range
8 points for a prediction in the 8.07 to 8.11 range or in the 7.89 to 7.93 range
12 points for a prediction in the 8.03 to 8.06 range or in the 7.94 to 7.97 range
16 points for a prediction in the 7.98 to 8.02 range
TIEBREAKER
Predict the number of British athletes who leave the Championships with a PB.
If an athlete PBs twice or more in their event that counts as only 1 PB. If the British Record is broken in the 4x400 that counts as 1 PB. In the multi-events, PBs in individual events do not count, only a final score PB counts. Equalling a PB does count as a PB.
The tiebreaker will only be used, if necessary, to determine our Gold Medal winner.
FORMAT OF YOUR ENTRY
For Part 1, please post all your Men's British medalist picks first and then your Women's, and put them in some sort of conventional event order (following the order in Part 2?)
For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line, e.g.,
W 800: Hodgkinson, Boffey, Bello - 1:55.81
...
Please check that for Parts 2 & 3 you have predicted all 26 events.
If any athletes in an event share a surname, please be clear about which athlete you are picking.
CLOSING TIME FOR ENTRIES & EDITING YOUR ENTRY
The closing time for your entry is 3.45pm UK time on Thursday 2nd March - that's 15 minutes before the first event is due to start. Up to that point you can edit your predictions as many times as you wish. Edits can not be made after the closing time.
I remember before the Olympic Prediction Contest that a few people had problems editing posts (getting the dreaded "Unapproved"!) so, if you're wary of doing that, please instead communicate your edit via a "Comment" on your original post. It helps me enormously if the whole of your contest entry is contained within one post.
Note, if you do brave it and edit your actual post ... If editing more than once, err on the side of caution and leave at least an hour between edits to (hopefully) avoid the forum software flagging your post as "Unapproved".
OTHER INFO
If any of your Part 1 predictions does not start the championships in your specified event you will not be deducted points for that athlete's failure to win a medal. This includes athletes who get injured in the warm-up.
Interim contest scores will be posted after:
- Friday (7 of 26 events completed)
- Saturday (13 of 26 events completed)
The final contest standings will be posted on Monday 6th March.
I do double-check the scoring but if you think I've still made an error, please do not hesitate to query it.
FORM GUIDE?
2022 European Championships
1 Balgair
2 Ladyloz
3 marra
2022 World Championships
1 trickstat
2 Laps
3= Ladyloz
3= marra
2022 World Indoors
1 Laps
2 Occasional Hope
3 Ladyloz
2021 Olympics (record participation of 17 contestants)
1 Walsh7
2 LuckySpikes
3= philipo (AKA marilyn1)
3= Ladyloz
2021 European Indoors
1 Laps
2 Occasional Hope
3 LuckySpikes
OK, that's it. Best of luck everyone!
but as an added interest we could include Athletics Weekly as a contestant. The website gives predicted medalists and times.
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