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PREDICTION CONTEST - 2023 European Indoor Championships (Thu 2 - Sun 5 March)

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  • PREDICTION CONTEST - 2023 European Indoor Championships (Thu 2 - Sun 5 March)

    Yep, it's time again for a few egos to be bruised! 😁

    Please note below the requested format for posting your entry - it really does help me zip through tallying the scores if the info is in the same order for all contestants.

    The final entry lists for the championships are available via https://www.european-athletics.com/n...-championships

    Please note that a few countries have also entered Reserves but these are not denoted as such on the entry lists. I have listed all of these in post # 2 below.
    In post # 2 I have also linked to where you can find the EA previews of events.

    Post # 2 is also where any significant withdrawals will be listed. If anyone spots any, please post the info in this thread. I will also endeavour to keep an eye open.

    Please check those lists in post # 2 before submitting your contest entry and, if necessary, amend it before clicking the "Post" button.

    If you need any clarification on anything, please ask away!


    Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH MEDALISTS
    Predict which British athletes you think will win a medal of any colour.

    For the relay teams, you don't need to name the individual athletes, you just need to say "Great Britain" if you think they will win a medal.

    For context, the number of medals won by GBR & NI in previous European Indoor Championships is:
    2021 - 12
    2019 - 12
    2017 - 10
    2015 - 9
    2013 - 8
    2011 - 9


    Scoring
    Remember there is some jeopardy involved, so while you will score 12 points for each correct prediction, you will also lose 12 points for each incorrect prediction.

    Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
    Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for all 26 events.

    Please order the events for each sex as follows:
    60
    400
    800
    1500
    3000
    60 Hurdles
    High Jump
    Pole Vault
    Long Jump
    Triple Jump
    Shot Put
    Heptathlon / Pentathlon
    4 x 400

    As per the vote after the 2022 Eugene Prediction Contest, you are not allowed to name reserve medalists in case of withdrawals.


    Scoring
    6 points - Correct gold medal prediction
    4 points - Correct silver medal prediction
    4 points - Correct bronze medal prediction
    2 points - any medalist predicted as medalling but not in the correct podium position

    So, for each event there is a maximum of 14 points available.


    Part 3 - PREDICT THE WINNING MARKS
    Predict the winning mark for each of the 26 events above.

    Scoring
    This will be done mostly on a percentage basis - see below for the exceptions.
    There are 16 points available for each event.

    For track events ...
    4 points scored if you are within 1% but greater than 0.7% either side of the winning mark
    8 points if you are within 0.7% but greater than 0.4% away
    12 points if you are within 0.4% away but greater than 0.1% away (or the standard range specified below)
    16 points if you are within 0.1% away or exactly correct - with the exception of the 60m & 60m Hurdles (requires exact prediction) and 400m (standard 0.05s either side)

    For field events & Multi events ...
    Scoring is the same but the percentages you can be within are doubled, so 4 points = 2% to 1.4% away; 8 points = 1.4% to 0.8%; 12 points = 0.8% to 0.2%; 16 points = within 0.2% either side for Hep/Pent, 4cm either side for Shot Put, 3cm either side for Triple Jump, 2cm either side for Long Jump, and exact prediction required for Pole Vault and High Jump.

    Don't worry if it's more confusing than it used to be. Just carry on as usual because I've got it all under control !

    Some examples ...
    If the Women's 800 is won in 2:00.00, the scoring would be as follows:
    4 points for a prediction in the 1:58.80 to 1:59.15 range or in the 2:00.85 to 2:01.20 range
    8 points for a prediction in the 1:59.16 to 1:59.51 range or in the 2:00.49 to 2:00.84 range
    12 points for a prediction in the 1:59.52 to 1:59.87 range or in the 2:00.13 to 2:00.48 range
    16 points for a prediction in the 1:59.88 to 2:00.12 range

    If the Men's Long Jump is won with 8.00, the scoring would be as follows:
    4 points for a prediction in the 8.12 to 8.16 range or in the 7.84 to 7.88 range
    8 points for a prediction in the 8.07 to 8.11 range or in the 7.89 to 7.93 range
    12 points for a prediction in the 8.03 to 8.06 range or in the 7.94 to 7.97 range
    16 points for a prediction in the 7.98 to 8.02 range


    TIEBREAKER
    Predict the number of British athletes who leave the Championships with a PB.

    If an athlete PBs twice or more in their event that counts as only 1 PB. If the British Record is broken in the 4x400 that counts as 1 PB. In the multi-events, PBs in individual events do not count, only a final score PB counts. Equalling a PB does count as a PB.

    The tiebreaker will only be used, if necessary, to determine our Gold Medal winner.


    FORMAT OF YOUR ENTRY
    For Part 1, please post all your Men's British medalist picks first and then your Women's, and put them in some sort of conventional event order (following the order in Part 2?)

    For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line, e.g.,
    W 800: Hodgkinson, Boffey, Bello - 1:55.81
    ...

    Please check that for Parts 2 & 3 you have predicted all 26 events.

    If any athletes in an event share a surname, please be clear about which athlete you are picking.


    CLOSING TIME FOR ENTRIES & EDITING YOUR ENTRY
    The closing time for your entry is 3.45pm UK time on Thursday 2nd March - that's 15 minutes before the first event is due to start. Up to that point you can edit your predictions as many times as you wish. Edits can not be made after the closing time.

    I remember before the Olympic Prediction Contest that a few people had problems editing posts (getting the dreaded "Unapproved"!) so, if you're wary of doing that, please instead communicate your edit via a "Comment" on your original post. It helps me enormously if the whole of your contest entry is contained within one post.

    Note, if you do brave it and edit your actual post ... If editing more than once, err on the side of caution and leave at least an hour between edits to (hopefully) avoid the forum software flagging your post as "Unapproved".


    OTHER INFO
    If any of your Part 1 predictions does not start the championships in your specified event you will not be deducted points for that athlete's failure to win a medal. This includes athletes who get injured in the warm-up.

    Interim contest scores will be posted after:
    - Friday (7 of 26 events completed)
    - Saturday (13 of 26 events completed)

    The final contest standings will be posted on Monday 6th March.

    I do double-check the scoring but if you think I've still made an error, please do not hesitate to query it.


    FORM GUIDE?
    2022 European Championships
    1 Balgair
    2 Ladyloz
    3 marra

    2022 World Championships
    1 trickstat
    2 Laps
    3= Ladyloz
    3= marra

    2022 World Indoors
    1 Laps
    2 Occasional Hope
    3 Ladyloz

    2021 Olympics (record participation of 17 contestants)
    1 Walsh7
    2 LuckySpikes
    3= philipo (AKA marilyn1)
    3= Ladyloz

    2021 European Indoors
    1 Laps
    2 Occasional Hope
    3 LuckySpikes

    OK, that's it. Best of luck everyone!​

  • #2
    EA are starting to publish event previews via https://www.european-athletics.com/c...hips/news-2021

    SIGNIFICANT WITHDRAWALS

    Men
    60: Aleksander Askovic (GER)
    3000: Narve Gilje NordΓ₯s (NOR), Per Svela (NOR Reserve)
    60 Hurdles: Asier Martinez (ESP) - replaced by Kevin Sanchez
    High Jump: Mateusz Przybylko (GER)
    Triple Jump: Emmanuel Ihemeje (ITA)​

    Shot Put: Konrad Bukowiecki (POL)

    Women



    ATHLETES NAMED AS RESERVES ON THE ENTRY LISTS
    Unless injury or illness strikes a compatriot, these athletes will not be competing in the following events:

    Men
    60: Andrew Robertson (GBR)
    60 Hurdles: Aurel Manga (FRA)
    Long Jump: Augustin Bey (FRA)


    Women
    60 Hurdles: Solenn Compper (FRA)
    High Jump: Iryna Gerashchenko (UKR)​
    Last edited by LuckySpikes; 01-03-23, 14:58.

    Comment


    • #3
      My effort:

      Part 1, British medallists
      Men
      60 Prescod
      1500 Gourley
      4x4

      Women
      60 Neita
      800 Hodgkinson, Boffey
      1500 Muir, Snowden
      HJ Lake
      LJ Sawyers

      Parts 2 and 3
      Men
      60 Reece Prescod, Lamont Marcell Jacobs, Samuele Ceccarelli; 6.46
      400 Karsten Warholm, Oscar Husillos, Liemarvin Bonevacia, 45.23
      800 Tibo de Smet, Saul Ordonez, Adrian Ben; 1.45.53
      1500 Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Neil Gourley, Amos Bartlesmeyer; 3.31.17
      3000 Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Robin Hendrix, Charles Grethen; 7.41.16
      60 Hurdles Jason Joseph, Enrique Llopis, Just Kwaou Mathey; 7.41
      High Jump Andrii Protsenko, Stefano Sottile, Enes Senses; 2.30
      Pole Vault Emmanuel Karoulis, Sondre Guttormsen, Menno Vloon; 5.87
      Long Jump Miltiadis Tentoglou, Tobias Montler, Mattia Furlani; 8.47
      Triple Jump Pedro Pichardo, Benjamin Compaore, Max Hess; 17.21
      Shot Put Tomas Stanek, Roman Kokoshko, Bob Bertemes; 21.72
      Heptathlon Simon Ehammer, Sander Skotheim, Kevin Mayer; 6450
      4 x 400 GB, Belgium, Spain; 3.06.04

      Women
      60 Mujinga Kambundji, Ewa Svoboda, Daryll Neita; 6.97
      400 Femke Bol, Lieke Klaver, Anna Kielbasinska; 50.02
      800 Keely Hodgkinson, Audrey Werro, Isabelle Boffey; 1.55.79
      1500 Laura Muir, Katie Snowden, Esther Guerrero; 4.01.16
      3000 Konstanze Klosterhalfen, Hanna Klein, Yasemin Can; 8.35.46
      60 Hurdles Reetta Hurske, Ditaji Kambundji, Nadine Visser; 7.76
      HJ Yaroslava Mahuchikh, Yulia Levchenko, Morgan Lake; 2.04
      PV Tina Sutej, Wilma Murto, Amalie Svabikova; 4.87
      LJ Malaika Mihambo, Ivana Vuleta, Jazmin Sawyers; 7.05
      TJ Patricia Mamona, Dariya Derkach, Tugba Danismaz; 14.56
      Shot Jessica Schilder, Fanny Roos, Sara Gambetta; 19.22
      Pentathlon Nafi Thiam, Adrianna Sulek, Noor Vidts; 4925
      4x4 Netherlands, Czech, Ireland 3.28.60

      Tiebreaker: 5 British PBs
      ​
      Last edited by Occasional Hope; 28-02-23, 21:58.

      Comment


      • #4
        The definition of a PB in the tie breaker I assume is an indoor PB. Confirm.
        If Inge does NOT eventually double up in the 3K, as indicated currently, AFTER we have already selected and texted our choices, do we lose out if we have selected him in our top three, or will you allow in this case a 4th choice for the 3k. . ? A quick look suggests he is the only case of doubling.

        Comment


        • Occasional Hope
          Occasional Hope commented
          Editing a comment
          I would read "you are not allowed to name reserve medalists in case of withdrawals" as a no to a fourth choice

      • #5
        Originally posted by Occasional Hope View Post
        My effort:

        Part 1, British medallists
        Men
        60 Prescod
        1500 Gourley
        4x4

        Women
        60 Neita
        800 Hodgkinson, Boffey
        1500 Muir, Snowden
        HJ Lake
        LJ Sawyers

        Parts 2 and 3
        Men
        60 Reece Prescod, Lamont Marcell Jacobs, Samuele Ceccarelli; 6.39
        400 Karsten Warholm, Oscar Husillos, Liemarvin Bonevacia, 45.23
        800 Tibo de Smet, Saul Ordonez, Adrian Ben; 1.45.53
        1500 Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Neil Gourley, Amos Bartlesmeyer; 3.31.17
        3000 Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Robin Hendrix, Charles Grethen; 7.41.16
        60 Hurdles Jason Joseph, Enrique Llopis, Just Kwaou Mathey; 7.41
        High Jump Andrii Protsenko, Stefano Sottile, Enes Senses; 2.30
        Pole Vault Emmanuel Karoulis, Sondre Guttormsen, Menno Vloon; 5.87
        Long Jump Miltiadis Tentoglou, Tobias Montler, Mattia Furlani; 8.47
        Triple Jump Pedro Pichardo, Benjamin Compaore, Emmanuel Ihejemi; 17.21
        Shot Put Tomas Stanek, Roman Kokoshko, Bob Bertemes; 21.72
        Heptathlon Simon Ehammer, Sander Skotheim, Kevin Mayer; 6450
        4 x 400 GB, Belgium, Spain; 3.06.04

        Women
        60 Mujinga Kambundji, Ewa Svoboda, Daryll Neita; 6.97
        400 Femke Bol, Lieke Klaver, Anna Kielbasinska; 50.02
        800 Keely Hodgkinson, Audrey Werro, Isabelle Boffey; 1.55.79
        1500 Laura Muir, Katie Snowden, Esther Guerrero; 4.01.16
        3000 Konstanze Klosterhalfen, Hanna Klein, Yasemin Can; 8.35.46
        60 Hurdles Reetta Hurske, Ditaji Kambundji, Nadine Visser; 7.76
        HJ Yaroslava Mahuchikh, Yulia Levchenko, Morgan Lake; 2.04
        PV Tina Sutej, Wilma Murto, Amalie Svabikova; 4.87
        LJ Malaika Mihambo, Ivana Vuleta, Jazmin Sawyers; 7.05
        TJ Patricia Mamona, Dariya Derkach, Tugba Danismaz; 14.56
        Shot Jessica Schilder, Fanny Roos, Sara Gambetta; 19.22
        Pentathlon Nafi Thiam, Adrianna Sulek, Noor Vidts; 4925
        4x4 Netherlands, Czech, Ireland 3.28.60

        Tiebreaker: 5 British PBs
        ​
        Thats quick, OH.I see you have predicted JI as a double winner. I have requested Lucky to confirm the situation if he withdraws from the 3k after selections.

        Comment


        • #6
          marilyn1 ...
          a) Yes, by PB I mean indoor PB.
          b) And yes, there's no 4th choices allowed in Part 2. It's not ideal IMO but contestants voted not to do that - I think some thought it was a bit messy and also not everyone was actually naming a 4th choice (e.g., when Hassan & Tsegay were uncertainties). In the case of a red-hot favourite like Ingebrigtsen it's fair because it would affect everyone the same.
          Just to clarify, if you named Ingebrigtsen 1st in the 3000 and he withdrew after contest closing time, your silver & bronze predictions then become your gold & silver predictions. That seems the best and fairest solution to me. The same would apply to other similar withdrawals that weren't notified here prior to the contest closing time.

          Thanks, Occasional Hope for getting the ball rolling.​

          Comment


          • #7
            Clarified thanks, lucky

            Comment


            • #8
              I've just noticed that both Laps and Occasional Hope are the Pavel Maslaks of our prediction contests - supreme in the last 2 indoor championships (1-2 both times) but not showing much outdooors (except Laps's silver at the 2022 Worlds).

              Comment


              • Occasional Hope
                Occasional Hope commented
                Editing a comment
                That's putting it nicely - I've done appallingly in the outdoor ones

            • #9
              Prediction contest for european indoors 2023

              Part 1 British medallists.

              Reece Prescod
              Neil Gourley
              GB Relay team

              Neita
              Hodgkinson
              Boffey
              Muir
              Snowden
              Sawyers.

              Parts 2 and 3

              60m Lamont Jacobs, Ceccarelli, Prescod ; 6.47
              400m Warholm, Husillos, Boers ; 45.02
              800m Ordonez, de Smet, Van diepen; 1.47.20
              1500m Ingebritsen,Gomez, Gourley; 3.31.70
              3000m Mechaal, Ingebritsen, Bibic; 7.45.00
              60m H Joseph , LLoris, Kwaou- mathey; 7.43
              HJ Protsenko, Wagner, Sottile; 2.30m
              PV S. Guttormsen,Karalis, Vloon; 5.87m
              LJ Tentoglu, Montler, Guerra; 8.45m
              TJ Pichardo,Ihemeje,Bocchi; 5.87m
              SP Bertemes, Fabbri,Mihaljevic 21.78m
              Hep Ehammer, Mayer, Skotherm; 6398
              Relay Belgium, Spain, GB; 3.7.10


              60m Kambunji, Swoboda, Neita; 7.01
              400m Bol, Klaver, Kielbasinska; 49.65
              800m Hodgkinson,Horvat, Boffey; 1.58.50
              1500m Muir, Guerrero, Snowden; 4.3.00
              3000m Klosterhalfen, Klein, Perez; 8.42.00
              60m H Hurske, Kambundji I, Visser 7.74
              HJ Mahuchikh, Vallortigara, Levchenko; 2.02m
              PV Sutej, Murto, Svabikova; 4.82m
              LJ Mihambo,Vuleta, Sawyers; 6.92m
              TJ Mamona, Derkash, Danismaz; 14.53m
              SP Dongmo, Schilder, Roos; 19.52m
              Pen Sulek, Thiam, Doktor; 4894
              Relay Poland, Netherlands, Czechoslovakia; 3.27. 60


              Tie Breaker 4 GB PBs

              Comment


              • LuckySpikes
                LuckySpikes commented
                Editing a comment
                EDIT as per post # 11 -
                Men's TJ: Pichardo, Compaore,Bocchi; 17.46

            • #10
              There's been a few more withdrawals, updated in Post # 2. One of them - Emmanuel Ihemeje in the M TJ - affects both Occasional Hope and marilyn1's entry. You may want to wait until nearer the closing time to edit your entry, in case there are other withdrawals.

              philipo, you will also need to clarify your Men's TJ winning mark - 16.87 presumably?​

              Comment


              • #11
                Originally posted by LuckySpikes View Post
                There's been a few more withdrawals, updated in Post # 2. One of them - Emmanuel Ihemeje in the M TJ - affects both Occasional Hope and marilyn1's entry. You may want to wait until nearer the closing time to edit your entry, in case there are other withdrawals.

                philipo, you will also need to clarify your Men's TJ winning mark - 16.87 presumably?​
                Pichardo should read 17.46m.Instead of Ihemeje please allow Compaore in second place.Bocchi in third as shown.I am a bit scared of the editing function so any more withdrawals tomorrow i will request a change by text to you if that is acceptable.
                Tonight i had just finished my entire post and the power went off at home and in our immediate area, so its my second attempt. Dedication, what?
                When i put a post via my computer I log in as marilyn1, but when i post on my phone i have become philipo as originally.This happened because when i logged in on my computer some while back it would nt accept philipo as my user name.

                Comment


                • LuckySpikes
                  LuckySpikes commented
                  Editing a comment
                  OK, that's fine. There's no risk with adding a comment like this though.

              • #12
                Tasty contest in the W60mH. Visser champion. Samba-M world champion. Kambundji improving fast. Hurske the form horse so far.
                Shaping up to be the best race of the Championships?

                Comment


                • #13
                  Originally posted by Laps View Post
                  Tasty contest in the W60mH. Visser champion. Samba-M world champion. Kambundji improving fast. Hurske the form horse so far.
                  Shaping up to be the best race of the Championships?
                  Very possible you are spot on with this race

                  Comment


                  • #14
                    There's just less than 24 hours left to post your entry!

                    Part 1 - British Medalists

                    Men
                    60: Prescod
                    1500: Gourley

                    Women
                    60: Neita
                    800: Hodgkinson, Boffey
                    1500: Muir, Snowden

                    Parts 2 & 3 - Medalists & Winning Marks

                    Men
                    60: Jacobs, Prescod, Ceccarelli - 6.50
                    400: Warholm, Husillos, Canal - 45.21
                    800: Ordonez, Tecuceanu, Kramer - 1:46.55
                    1500: Ingebrigtsen, Gourley, Habz - 3:34.50
                    3000: Ingebrigtsen, Bibic, Mechaaal - 7:40.00
                    60 Hurdles: Joseph, Llopis, Kwaou-Mathey - 7.48
                    High Jump: Protsenko, Potye, Sottile - 2.29
                    Pole Vault: Vloon, Karalis, Guttormsen - 5.90
                    Long Jump: Tentoglou, Montler, Guerra - 8.48
                    Triple Jump: Pichardo, Bocchi, Hess - 17.30
                    Shot Put: Stanek, Mihaljevic, Fabbri - 21.88
                    Heptathlon: Ehammer, Mayer, Skotheim - 6335
                    4 x 400: Netherlands, Belgium, Spain - 3:05.80

                    Women
                    60: Kambundji, Swoboda, Neita - 7.01
                    400: Bol, Klaver, Kielbasinska - 50.08
                    800: Hodgkinson, Horvat, Boffey - 2:00.20
                    1500: Muir, Snowden, Bobocea - 4:04.10
                    3000: Klosterhalfen, Cavalli, Klein - 8:39.50
                    60 Hurdles: Hurske, Samba-Mayela, Visser - 7.77
                    High Jump: Mahuchikh, Weerman, Levchenko - 2.01
                    Pole Vault: Sutej, Svabikova, Stefanidi - 4.78
                    Long Jump: Mihambo, Vuleta, Gardasevic - 6.90
                    Triple Jump: Mamona, Danismaz, Derkach - 14.38
                    Shot Put: Schilder, Dongmo, Roos - 19.50
                    Pentathlon: Sulek, Thiam, Vidts - 4895
                    4 x 400: Netherlands, Italy, Czechia - 3:26.70

                    Tiebreaker: 4 British PBs

                    Toughest to pick I think were the Women's 3000 - I reckon there's 6 athletes in contention for the 2 medals behind Klosterhalfen - and the Men's High Jump, simply because it's been very mediocre this season!​

                    Comment


                    • #15
                      Lucky
                      I don't want to give you extra work but as an added interest we could include Athletics Weekly as a contestant. The website gives predicted medalists and times.
                      If thought a good idea (?) I will post it.

                      Comment

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