Ones to keep an eye on leading up to Paris 2024

[Loop-guru]

These are athletes perhaps no-one would even consider for a senior Outdorrs team right now but could rise Keely Hodgkinson style over the next couple of years. My fist pick is William Battershill in the 3000M S/C. I believe he is in 8.22 / 23 shape right now so a couple of extra years of improvement could get him down around 8.15. He has actually ran more steeples this year than last year so far so he may not be planning to do anymore but his recent 3:41 1500M suggests he could go sub 8:30 for the first time in a fast even split style race. I do not predict Keely style greatness but starting to get World / Olympic finalists again for the men would be a start.

Does anyone else have anymore tips for the top. They can be obvious (Yemi Mary John) or Otherwise. All are welcome.

[Ursus]

I suspect this will be a very track centric thread☹️

[Loop-guru]

There are a few but for most Paris might be too soon. I was thinking of doing one on Lucy Hadaway in the Long Jump. Her progress has stalled this year but a 10cm increase to her PB over the next 2 years would get her to 6.83

[jjimbojames]

Event-wise, I suspect the w400m and heptathlon are going to be great to watch unfold…the hep has four women fighting for three places, all of whom will need an early hep to get the qualifying score. The w400m - we legitimately could have 10 women with the WC standard!

Individuals - I’m looking for Sammy Ball and Toby Makoyawo to keep progressing.

Sophie McKinna - if her new technique beds in could be a surprise package

[Ursus]

Sophie McKinna - if her new technique beds in could be a surprise package

Interesting call on McKinna. Suspect that could go one of 2 ways, just hope it isn’t the Hitchon route.

On the subject of which she’s still only 31, so I’ll start a rumour she’s on the comeback trail for Paris and hope she’s listening! Her NR would have been very close to the medals in Eugene.

[jjimbojames]

Indeed…but it if doesn’t work out, she’s not getting picked on current distances, so she needs to see results or change back!

[RunUnlimited]

Mia McIntosh - 100m Hurdles

Onyeka Okoh - 400m Hurdles

Sam Lunt - 400m Hurdles

Faith Akinbilejie - 200m

Sophie Walton - 200m

Ethan Hussey - 800m/1500m

Sam Reardon - 400m/800m

Daniel Goriola - 110m Hurdles

Jaiden Dean - 110m Hurdles

Nia Wedderburn-Goodison - 100m

Abigail Ives - 800m

Abigail Pawlett, Ella Rush, Eloise Hind, Seren Rodgers, Chisom Nwafor - Heptathlon (Yes, I really do think all of them have a chance, though in the cases of Rodgers and Nwafor, their so young (U17s) that it's possible they will eventually find success in a specialist event rather than as a heptathlete. Time will tell.)

[carterhatch]

... lo and behold,

Geogina Adam has improved her 400m PB by 2.5 seconds running 52.73 on the 10th August.

[Loop-guru]

I like a lot of these picks. Some might still be a bit young come Paris 2024 and that Heptathlon strengh is amazing. Re your 800M picks. I think Abigail Ives is very much in contention and could make a similar impact in Paris as Keeley made in Tokyo. Re Onyeka OKoh, have you seen his 400M PB It explains to a certain extent why he has been progressing all season. It's 47.73. That's actually quicker than a lot of our senior 400M Hurdlers have run IMO he could be another contender for what could end up being a tough team to make - namely the mens 4X400M

[RunUnlimited]

@Loop-guru

I too think a few of my picks will be looking at the 2028 Olympics rather than Paris 2024, but I still feel they have some good chances at progressing further. Ives rapid ascension this year into 6th in the World U20 800m final, was no fluke, and see her as a leading contender for gold at next year's European U20 Champs (along with Werro, who will still be an U20, and potential teammates Phoebe Gill, who'll be eligible for the U20's, and/or Iris Downes). There is also the outside chance that Ives will improve again to such a level that she could indeed do a Keely and qualify for 2023 World Champs! All just speculation of course.
On Okoh, I think I was the first on here to note his improvements over the 400m hurdles this year and as you point out, his flat 400m times - fast enough to rank him 6th on the UK U20 lists for 2022 - have certainly helped propel him to personal best after personal best, culminating in his 50.95 semi final in Cali, an outright UK age 17 best. At this stage and with the rate of his development in the event, I would wager that Okoh could become the first British teenager to go sub-50 seconds in the 400m hurdles, eclipsing Alistair Chalmers UK U20 record of 50.07 set in 2019. And like you state Loop, it wouldn't surprise me if he became a mainstay in future 4x400m relay squads too, starting with the U20's next year. Though Ed Faulds would have moved up into the U23s, there will be still several members of the gold medal winning team at last year's Euro U20's who will still be eligible for the 2023 edition - Charlie Carvell, 4th placer in the individual 400m in Tallinn, has missed all this outdoor season due to injury, but should be back by next year, Reuben Henry-Daire, and Samuel Reardon, 4th in the 800m final in Cali just a week or so ago, will also be still around as U20s.

[Christy93]

Avoiding the obvious U20 kids (Faulds, John etc)...

Charlotte Payne - No surprise. Not many first year U23s throw 69m+ so consistently around the world. Wouldn't be shocked if she unleashed a 72/73m effort this year, and would almost be surprised if she isn't challenging the NR by 2024. I saw her throw in person for the first time at English seniors and her rotation speed and balance really makes you sit up and take note.

Jake Minshull - First year U20, decent multi-eventer and 800m runner but I think his future may lie over 400h. I watched him run a 1.49low 800 at Watford yesterday, winning his race and setting a 2s PB. His speed will need to improve for the hurdles, and he isn't the tallest, but he fits the 'one to watch' bill. Could very much see him running sub 50 and making the team in 2024.

A few for 2028 - Murray Fotheringham (Dec), D'mitri Varlack (LJ), Innes Fitzgerland (MD), Phoebe Gill (800/1500), Arabella Wilson (400/400h), Cleo Agyepong (SP)

[Loop-guru]

Some interesting picks there. Charlotte Payne trajectory is truly Keelyesque. Her improvement over the last few years is 2017 - 52.27, 2018 - 56.08, 2019 - 61.83, 2020 - 63.92, 2021 - 64.09, 2022 - 70.59 If this is maintained she will be around 77-78 metres by the time of Paris 2024. She is no doubt a potential world beater.

[Ursus]

I hope you’re right but any future improvement is likely to be much more incremental than the huge jump we’ve seen this year.

[RunUnlimited]

Your call on Minshull in the 400m hurdles could be a really good one. He was 2nd to eventual World U20 semi finalist Onyeka Okoh at the UK U20 Champs, just a few days after setting his PB of 51.73 winning at the English Schools. With his background in multi events and the 800m, I think Minshull's could be soon be going sub-51 like Okoh managed in Cali as well. He'll be eligible for the World U20s in 2024 too.

[Loop-guru]

My next pick is for Rio Mitchum. Again, perhaps not destined for Keeleyesque heights but looks to me just a few quick times away from making teams for us for years to come. His PB does not do him justice and if he had got in some of the races that Joe Brier and AHW have done this year you would already be looking at a low 45 performer. He peaked for the UK champs and took the scalps of both Brier and AHW finishing in third place in very windy conditions. Looking at the times that weekend he could expect to run at least a second quicker. Coupled to the fact he is fairly new to the event I feel with a bit of natural progression between now and Paris 2024 he could be a solid 44.?? performer

[Ulster-Scot]

Avoiding the obvious U20 kids (Faulds, John etc)...


A few for 2028 - Murray Fotheringham (Dec), D'mitri Varlack (LJ), Innes Fitzgerland (MD), Phoebe Gill (800/1500), Arabella Wilson (400/400h), Cleo Agyepong (SP)

Dimitri Varlack is originally from the British Virgin islands and competed for them at the CARIFTA Games in April (even tho his Po10 profile lists him as competing for Marshall MK) .

https://www.284media.com/local/2022/04/11/32-athletes-selected-to-represent-the-bvi-at-carifta-games-biggest-ever-team/

As the BVI complete at the Olympics, he has no real incentive to switch to GB a'la Zharnel Hughes. Apparently his grandad is the President of the BVI Basketball Federation and I'm guessing he's also related to this chap

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralston_Varlack

Do you rate Murray Fotheringham as a better prospect than Sammy Ball?

[Christy93]

Dimitri Varlack is originally from the British Virgin islands and competed for them at the CARIFTA Games in April (even tho his Po10 profile lists him as competing for Marshall MK) .

https://www.284media.com/local/2022/04/11/32-athletes-selected-to-represent-the-bvi-at-carifta-games-biggest-ever-team/

As the BVI complete at the Olympics, he has no real incentive to switch to GB a'la Zharnel Hughes. Apparently his grandad is the President of the BVI Basketball Federation and I'm guessing he's also related to this chap

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralston_Varlack

Do you rate Murray Fotheringham as a better prospect than Sammy Ball?

Aware of that RE Varlack, but he has in recent months been taken under BAs wing and has been up to Loughborough for training sessions, earmarking for the future, so I'd imagine there must be at least some hope that he'll compete for GBR.

I'm no multis expert, I just think Fotheringham looks a really talent. Sammy's also great and I know a few on here really excited about him looking forward.

[Occasional Hope]

Fotheringham clearly has a lot of talent, but I'm wary because he hasn't completed a full decathlon since 2018 when he was an u17, and he has DNF a few indoor heptathlons too.

[SprintRelayFan]

Not exactly a kid but Rommel glave is still only 22 and if he can get over injuries…

[Loop-guru]

On the World Athletics site he is still coming up for Jamaica & he is not ranked on PO10 for 2021 though he was on there last year. Potentially also one for Missing in Action.

[CAML]

Following on from Lee Valley, Dagenham and Stratford are holding regular sprint meets. I've noticed how young and fast the athletes are, and how many don't compete out of East London. I'd expect some significant talent to emerge from these hot spots.
Michael Jenkins has broken the F38 Celebral Palsy world record for discus by 3 metres with 55.92. Just 17, standing 6'9", he could redefine the event.

[Occasional Hope]

My next pick is for Rio Mitchum. Again, perhaps not destined for Keeleyesque heights but looks to me just a few quick times away from making teams for us for years to come. His PB does not do him justice and if he had got in some of the races that Joe Brier and AHW have done this year you would already be looking at a low 45 performer. He peaked for the UK champs and took the scalps of both Brier and AHW finishing in third place in very windy conditions. Looking at the times that weekend he could expect to run at least a second quicker. Coupled to the fact he is fairly new to the event I feel with a bit of natural progression between now and Paris 2024 he could be a solid 44.?? performer

After his super relay split in Budapest this is looking Like a good prediction.

[Loop-guru]

Looking at my two picks a year on I thought I would revisit them and add in two more additional picks later today. Firstly Rio Mitchum looks to have surpassed expectations in the sense of what he has delivered in the relays but although his PB has improved he is still lagging behind a clearcut Q and invite from the selectors. Hopefully he will now get into faster races and be given the chance to go sub 45. My other pick was William Battershill in the 3000M S/C who improved from 8:27:92 (2022) to 8:22:64 (2023). Has consistantly improved over the years and another 5 second improvement in 2024 would get him the consideration standard assuming that's how it's done for the Olympics. 8:24 got into the final so if he does get to go he could make the final. To even things up I will go for two women next. I don't think they are obvious picks but will be known to everyone on the forum.

[milkshake]

im intrested to know now

[Loop-guru]

Sorry, real life got in the way of "Fantasy Athletics". On to my two additional picks. These are perhaps more of a stretch for different reasons but I am going with my gut instinct anyway. My two additional picks are;
Emily Newnham 400mH - I am going for Emily based on her impressive flat speed which is only 4/10ths slower than Jess Knight. By next year she could well be quicker than Jessie on the flat. That leaves then only the hurdling aspect which probably needs to improve massively for her to make the team but if she improves her flat speed down to where Jessie is now then even with a differential of more than 3 seconds she could still achieve the Q standard. Looking at her progression on PO10 she has gone from 59:03 to 57:02 so another 2 seconds would bring her mighty close. The powers that be obviously think very highly of her as she was running at the Diamond League yesterday running her second fastest flat 400M ever albeit in last place.
Khahisa Mhlanga 800M - Blessed with great running genes and heritage as half sister of Jess Judd, she has surprised me with her progression this year and probably would not be under consideration if it was'nt for her recent sub 2 performance at a BMC meeting. Going sub 2 was one thing but the manner of the victory is what really impressed me as she simply ran away from a decentish field. I believe she can run sub 1:59 now but by next year could we be looking at another 1:57 performer.

[Occasional Hope]

*Khahisa Mhlanga 800M - Blessed with great running genes and heritage as half sister of Jess Judd*

Really? I had no idea they were related.

[Peterwill]

They're step-sisters, so not actually blood related. Mick Judd is married to Mhalanga's mum.