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  • PREDICTION CONTEST - 2022 European Championships

    Are you ready for more prediction fun and repeatedly asking yourself, "What was I thinking?" ?

    Please note below the requested format for posting your entry - it really does help me zip through tallying the scores if the info is in the same order for all contestants.

    The final entry lists for Munich 2022 are available viahttps://www.european-athletics.com/n...-championships
    (best to choose lists by Season's Best).
    Please note that ...
    a) at the bottom of a few entry lists there are some top athletes without a Season's Best
    b) a few countries have also entered Reserves but these are not denoted as such on the lists. I have listed all of these in post no.2 below so please do check the list before submitting your contest entry.
    In post no.2 I have also linked to where you can find the EA previews of events.

    Post no.2 is also where any significant Withdrawals will be listed. If anyone spots any, please post the info in this thread. I will also endeavour to keep an eye open. Please check these lists and, if necessary, amend your contest entry before submitting it.

    If you need any clarification on anything, please ask away!


    Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH TOP 4 FINISHES
    Predict which British athletes you think will finish in the Top 4.

    I think Top 4 is our sweet spot this time, probably producing more "will s/he, won't s/he?" decisions than Top 3 or Top 5 would.

    Because some athletes are doubling, please specify which event you think they will finish Top 4 in.
    For the relay teams, you don't need to name the individual athletes, you just need to say "Great Britain" if you think they will finish Top 4.

    For some context, I would usually provide the figures achieved by the GB team at the previous few European championships. However, I cannot find any placing tables and it would take too long to compile the figures from results.


    Scoring
    Remember there is some jeopardy involved, so while you will score 8 points for each correct prediction, you will also lose 8 points for each incorrect prediction.

    Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
    Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for each of the 24 events below (12 men's & 12 women's).

    The events are listed in the order they will be completed.

    W Marathon
    M Shot Put
    M LJ
    M 5000
    M Decathlon
    W Hammer
    W 400
    M 110 Hurdles
    M 1500
    W 5000
    W TJ
    M 200
    W 200
    M PV
    W 800
    W Javelin
    M 4x400
    W 3000 Steeple
    W HJ
    M 800
    M Javelin
    M 10,000
    W 100 Hurdles
    W 4x100


    Scoring
    6 points - Correct gold medal prediction
    4 points - Correct silver medal prediction
    4 points - Correct bronze medal prediction
    2 points - any medalist predicted as medalling but not in the correct podium position

    So, for each event there is a maximum of 14 points available.


    Part 3 - PREDICT THE WINNING MARKS
    Predict the winning mark for each of the 24 events above.

    Scoring
    This will be done mostly on a percentage basis - see below for a tweak to the scoring that makes it a little easier to score the full number of points for a prediction.
    There are 16 points available for each event.

    For track events & Marathon ...
    4 points scored if you are within 1% but greater than 0.7% either side of the winning mark
    8 points if you are within 0.7% but greater than 0.4% away
    12 points if you are within 0.4% away but greater than 0.1% away (or the standard range specified below)
    16 points if you are within 0.1% away or exactly correct - with the exception of 100m & High Hurdles (requires exact prediction), 200m (standard 0.02s either side) and 400m (standard 0.05s either side)

    For field events & Multi events ...
    Scoring is the same but the percentages you can be within are doubled, so 4 points = 2% to 1.4% away; 8 points = 1.4% to 0.8%; 12 points = 0.8% to 0.2%; 16 points = within 0.2% either side - with the exception of High Jump & Pole Vault (requires exact prediction), Long Jump (standard 1cm either side) & Triple Jump (standard 3cm either side)

    Don't worry if it's more confusing than it used to be. Just carry on as usual because I've got it all under control !

    Some examples ...
    If the Women's 800 is won in 2:00.00, the scoring would be as follows:
    4 points for a prediction in the 1:58.80 to 1:59.15 range or in the 2:00.85 to 2:01.20 range
    8 points for a prediction in the 1:59.16 to 1:59.51 range or in the 2:00.49 to 2:00.84 range
    12 points for a prediction in the 1:59.52 to 1:59.87 range or in the 2:00.13 to 2:00.48 range
    16 points for a prediction in the 1:59.88 to 2:00.12 range

    If the Men's Long Jump is won with 8.00, the scoring would be as follows:
    4 points for a prediction in the 8.12 to 8.16 range or in the 7.84 to 7.88 range
    8 points for a prediction in the 8.07 to 8.11 range or in the 7.89 to 7.93 range
    12 points for a prediction in the 8.02 to 8.06 range or in the 7.94 to 7.98 range
    16 points for a prediction in the 7.99 to 8.01 range


    TIEBREAKER
    Predict the number of British athletes who leave the Championships with a PB.

    If say Dina PBs in the 100 and 200 that counts as 2 PBs. However, if she PBs twice in the 100 that counts as only 1 PB. If the British Record is broken in a Relay that counts as 1 PB. In the multi-events, PBs in individual events do not count, only a final score PB counts. Equalling a PB does count as a PB.

    The tiebreaker will only be used, if necessary, to determine our Gold Medal winner.


    FORMAT OF YOUR ENTRY
    For Part 1, please post all your Men's British Top 4 picks first and then your Women's, and put them in some sort of conventional event order (following the order in the Entry Lists?)

    For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line, e.g.,
    W 800: Hodgkinson, Reekie, Bell - 1:53.27
    ...

    Please check that for Parts 2 & 3 you have predicted all 24 events.

    If any athletes in an event share a surname, please be clear about which athlete you are picking.


    CLOSING TIME FOR ENTRIES & EDITING YOUR ENTRY
    The closing time for your entry is 4.45am UK time on Monday 15th August - that's in case the marathons get moved to an earlier time slot due to the expected hot weather. Up to that point you can edit your predictions as many times as you wish. Edits can not be made after the closing time.

    I remember before the Olympic Prediction Contest that a few people had problems editing posts (getting the dreaded "Unapproved"!) so, if you're wary of doing that, please instead communicate your edit via a "Comment" on your original post. It helps me enormously if the whole of your contest entry is contained within one post.

    Note, if you do brave it and edit your actual post ... If editing more than once, err on the side of caution and leave at least an hour between edits to (hopefully) avoid the forum software flagging your post as "Unapproved".


    OTHER INFO
    If any of your Part 1 predictions does not start the championships in your specified event you will not be deducted points for that athlete's failure to finish Top 4. This includes athletes who get injured in the warm-up.

    Interim contest scores will be posted after:
    - Day 3 (8 of our 24 events completed)
    - Day 5 (13 of our 24 events completed)

    The final contest standings will be posted on Monday 22nd August.

    I do double-check the scoring but if you think I've still made an error, please do not hesitate to query it.


    FORM GUIDE?
    2022 World Championships
    1 trickstat
    2 Laps
    3= Ladyloz
    3= marra

    2022 World Indoors
    1 Laps
    2 Occasional Hope
    3 Ladyloz

    2021 Olympics (record participation of 17 contestants)
    1 Walsh7
    2 LuckySpikes
    3= philipo
    3= Ladyloz

    2021 European Indoors
    1 Laps
    2 Occasional Hope
    3 LuckySpikes

    OK, that's it. Best of luck everyone! Just don't have more luck than me, OK - I need to get back on that podium!
    Last edited by LuckySpikes; 10-08-22, 12:46.

  • #2
    EA are starting to publish event previews via https://www.european-athletics.com/news

    Startlists for Day 1 are due on Sunday 14th August.


    SIGNIFICANT WITHDRAWALS

    Women
    5000: Meraf Bahta (SWE)
    10,000: Karoline Grovdal (participation in the 5000 uncertain as yet), Anna Arnaudo (ITA)
    Marathon: Charlotta Fougberg (SWE)

    Men
    LJ: Filippo Randazzo (ITA)
    TJ: Max Heß (GER)
    HJ: Fabian Delryd (SWE)
    Shot Put: Wictor Petersson (SWE)
    Javelin: Oliver Helander (FIN), Kim Amb (SWE)
    Decathlon: Thomas Van der Plaetsen (BEL)


    ATHLETES NAMED AS RESERVES ON THE ENTRY LISTS
    Unless injury or illness strikes a compatriot, these athletes will not be competing in the following events:

    Men
    100: Mitchell-Blake (GBR), Ramdhan (GBR), Almas (GER)
    200: Ferguson (GBR), Quainoo (GBR)
    400: Aceti (ITA)
    800: Langford (GBR), Webb (GBR)
    1500: Giles (GBR), Mills (GBR)
    5000: Thorwirth (GER)
    10,000: Butchart (GBR), Smith (GBR), Mohumed (GER), Nordås (NOR), Rabi (NOR)
    3000SC: Battershill (GBR), Hopkins (GBR)
    Javelin: Keränen (FIN), Laine (FIN)
    Decathlon: Erm (EST), Lillemets (EST), Bechmann (GER)
    20km Race Walk: Pohle (GER)
    35km Race Walk: Junghannß (GER), Seiler (GER)


    Women
    100: Nelson (GBR), Williams (GBR), Burghardt (GER), Del Ponte (SUI)
    200: Lansiquot (GBR), Nelson (GBR)
    400: Clark (GBR), Pipi (GBR), Mawdsley (IRL), de Witte (NED)
    800: Boffey (GBR), Selman (GBR)
    1500: Vissa (ITA)
    5000: Fry (GBR), Nesbitt (GBR), Klein (GER)
    400 Hurdles: Tappin (GBR), Turner (GBR), Wold (NOR)
    Shot Put: Nicoll (GBR)
    Discus: Harting (GER), Steinacker (GER)
    Hammer: Koskinen (FIN)
    Javelin: Píšová (CZE)
    Last edited by LuckySpikes; 14-08-22, 20:33.

    Comment


    • #3
      Ask and thou shall receive LuckySpikes...

      Here's the totals for GB Top 4 finishes over the last few editions of the ECs.

      2010 - 22
      2012 - 12
      2014 - 26
      2016 - 19
      2018 - 23

      Odd question - does the marathon team count as an event for the GB Top 4s? Are they even still running the team event these days?

      Comment


      • LuckySpikes
        LuckySpikes commented
        Editing a comment
        Cheers for that !

        They do still have the team comp (hence some countries having 5 or 6 athletes in each marathon) but no, it doesn't count as an event for the Part 1 predictions.

    • #4
      Bumping this up because it's fallen off Page 1 of the threads list.

      Comment


      • #5
        Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH TOP 4 FINISHES
        Predict which British athletes you think will finish in the Top 4.
        Men:
        100 Hughes, Edoburun
        200 NMB, Hughes
        400 MHS. AHW
        800 Pattison, Wightman
        1500 Stonier, Heyward
        10000 Cairess
        4x1
        4x4

        Women
        100 DAS, Neita
        200 DAS
        400 Ohuruogu
        800 Hodgkinson, Reekie
        1500 Muir
        5000 McColgan
        10000 McColgan, Judd
        Steeple Bird, Pratt
        100h Sember
        4x1
        4 x 4


        Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
        Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for each of the 24 events below (12 men's & 12 women's). For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line

        W Marathon Brinkman, Mayer, Dattke 2.28.34
        M Shot Put Stanek, Ponzio, Bukowiecki 22.05
        M LJ Tentoglou, Montler, Caceres 8.47
        M 5000 Ingebrigtsen, Mohumed, Crippa 13.05.16
        M Decathlon Mayer, Kaul, Uibo 8654
        W Hammer Fantini, Kopron, Jacobsen 75.65
        W 400 Bol, Klaver, Kaczmarek 49.46
        M 110 Hurdles Zhoya, Martinez, Czykier 13.09
        M 1500 Ingebrigtsen, Stonier, (Mario) Garcia 3.29.20
        W 5000 Klosterhalfen, McColgan, Can 14.59.00
        W TJ Bekh-Romanchuk, Mamona, Eckhardt-Noack 14.37
        M 200 Afrifah, Meba Zeze, NMB 19.89
        W 200 DAS, Kambundji, Schwab 21.89
        M PV Duplantis, LitaBaerhe, Vloon 6.20
        W 800 Hodgkinson, Bello, Reekie 1.57.18
        W Javelin Jasiunaite, Tzengko, Vilagos 63.22
        M 4x400 Belgium, Czech, Spain 2.57.83
        W 3000 Steeple Bird, Gega, Finot 9.10.18
        W HJ Mahuchikh, Vallortigara, Geraschenko 2.01
        M 800 Robert, Pattison, Wightman 1.44.50
        M Javelin Vadlejch, Weber, Hofmann 90.54
        M 10,000 Crippa, Gressier, Cairess 28.01.15
        W 100 Hurdles Sember, Skrzy, Visser 12.50
        W 4x100 GB, Poland, Germany 41.30

        TIEBREAKER: 6


        Hoping to not do worse than at Eugene
        Last edited by Occasional Hope; 15-08-22, 00:10.

        Comment


        • #6
          Occasional Hope, I noticed you have 4 listed for the W 400 in Part 2. I'll just disregard the 4th, Ohuruogu.

          Also, is your W 100 Hurdles time prediction 12.50 or 12.34?

          Comment


          • Occasional Hope
            Occasional Hope commented
            Editing a comment
            Sorry, I was making late changes to my draft

            Klaver is only a reserve according to your earlier post so she's the one I've cut out.

            And 12.50.

        • #7
          I have extended the contest closing time by 4 hours until 8.45am on Monday 15th since the organisers have said they are not rescheduling the marathons (it's not expected to be blazing hot in the late morning). I don't want to edit this into the first post though (just in case!). if that goes "Unapproved" the whole thread disappears off the threads list!

          Occasional Hope I have just noticed you didn't provide your Tiebreaker answer.

          Comment


        • #8
          There's just over 19 hours to get your entry in (Closing time now 8.45am UK time on Monday).

          Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH TOP 4 FINISHES
          Men
          100: Hughes
          200: Mitchell-Blake
          400: Hudson-Smith
          1500: Heyward
          10,000: Scott
          4x100
          4x400

          Women
          100: Asher-Smith, Neita
          200: Asher-Smith
          800: Hodgkinson
          1500: Muir
          5000: McColgan
          10,000: McColgan, Judd
          3000SC: Bird
          100H: Sember
          4x100
          4x400

          Parts 2 & 3 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS & WINNING MARKS
          W Marathon: Brinkman, Schlumpf, Epis - 2:25:50
          M Shot Put: Stanek, Mihaljevic, Ponzio - 21.83
          M LJ: Tentoglou, Caceres, Santos - 8.34
          M 5000: Ingebrigtsen, Crippa, Katir - 13:11.50
          M Decathlon: Mayer, Kaul, Ehammer - 8785
          W Hammer: Fantini, Tervo, Skydan - 74.97
          W 400: Bol, Kaczmarek, Kielbasinska - 49.71
          M 110 Hurdles: Martinez, Czykier, Martinot-Lagarde - 13.16
          M 1500: Ingebrigtsen, Heyward, Mario Garcia - 3:33.90
          W 5000: Battocletti, McColgan, Grovdal - 14:42.00
          W TJ: Bekh-Romanchuk, Eckhardt-Noack, Makela - 14.67
          M 200: Tortu, Mitchell-Blake, Afrifah - 20.08
          W 200: Asher-Smith, Kambundji, Klaver - 22.09
          M PV: Duplantis, Lillefosse, Lita Baehre - 6.06
          W 800: Hodgkinson, Lamote, Horvat - 1:57.88
          W Javelin: Jasiunaite, Muze, Tzengko - 63.90
          M 4x400: Belgium, Netherlands, Great Britain - 2:59.65
          W 3000 Steeple: Gega, Bird, Mismas-Zrimsek - 9:12.75
          W HJ: Mahuchikh, Gerashchenko, Vallortigara - 2.02
          M 800: van Diepen, Tual, de Arriba - 1:44.64
          M Javelin: Vadlejch, Weber, Vesely - 89.20
          M 10,000: Gressier, Crippa, Scott - 27:37.00
          W 100 Hurdles: Skrzy, Sember, Visser - 12.53
          W 4x100: Great Britain, Germany, Spain - 41.96

          TIEBREAKER
          9 British PBs

          Comment


          • LuckySpikes
            LuckySpikes commented
            Editing a comment
            Changing my M PV prediction to 6.10

          • LuckySpikes
            LuckySpikes commented
            Editing a comment
            There's 2 Garcia's in the M 1500. If you don't specify, I'll presume you're going for Mario not Gonzalo.

        • #9
          OK, I've figured it out. Lieke Klaver is running the 400. Saalberg is in the Round 1 heats but de Witte isn't, meaning that Klaver (with a bye to the semis) must have replaced de Witte.

          At the moment, Occasional Hope, it's just me anf thee battling for the gold medal ! 12 hours until closing time ...

          Comment


          • Occasional Hope
            Occasional Hope commented
            Editing a comment
            Well, that will be one way to finish higher than last time

          • Occasional Hope
            Occasional Hope commented
            Editing a comment
            Also, I will change my 400 prediction to include Klaver.

        • #10
          Part 1

          Men
          100 Hughes
          200 Hughes, Mitchell-Blake
          400Hudson-Smith
          800 Wightman
          1500 Stonier
          4*100
          4*400

          Women
          100 DAS, Netta
          200DAS, Netta
          400 Ohuruogu
          800 Hodgkinson
          1500 Muir
          5000 McColgan
          10000 McColgan, Judd
          100H Sember
          400H Knight
          3000Sc Bird, Pratt
          4*100
          4*400


          Parts 2-3

          W Marathon Dattke, Brinkman, Schlumpf 2:26.5
          M Shot Put Bukowiecki, Stanek, Ponzio - 21.85
          M LJ Tentóglou, Montler, Pommery 8.31
          M 5000 Ingebrigtsen, Kimeli, Mohumed 13:08.0
          M Decathlon, Mayer, Kaul, Ehammer 8800
          W Hammer Kopron, Fantini. Skydan 73.71
          W 400 Bol, Klaver, Kaczmarek,49.50
          M 110 Hurdles Zhoya, Martinez(A) , Martinot-Lagarde 13.10
          M 1500 Ingerbritsen, Stonier, Grethen 3:34.2
          W 5000 McCoglan, Grovdal, Klosterhalfen 14:51.0.
          W TJ Bekh-Romanchuk, Eckhardt, Filipic 14.60
          M 200 Hughes, Zeze, Afrifah 19.99
          W 200 Neita, DAS, Kambundji 21.86
          M PV Duplantis, Lillefosse, Renaud Lavillenie 6.22
          W 800 Hodgkinson, Lamote, Hering 1:57.20
          W Javelin Tzénggo, Jasiunaité,Müze 62.50
          M 4x400 Belgium, France, Czechia 2:59.10
          W 3000 Steeple Giga,Bird, Pratt 9:14.20
          W HJ Mahuchikh, Hershchewnko, Topic 2.03
          M 800 Tual, de Arriba, Wightman 1:45.85
          M Javelin Vadlejch, Weber. Hofmann 88.70
          M 10,000 Crippa, Gressier, Kimeli 27:58.90
          W 100 Hurdles Sember, Skrzyszowska, Visser 12.61
          W 4x100 GB, Switzerland, Germany 41.90

          Tiebreaker 7,
          Last edited by oxfan; 15-08-22, 13:43.

          Comment


          • Chafford1
            Chafford1 commented
            Editing a comment
            21.86 for Neita??

        • #11
          Thanks for the note on Klaver - added herin for Ohuruogu (relegated to 4th on my prediction)

          Comment


          • #12
            oxfan, You just have a blank line for the W Marathon in Parts 2 & 3.

            Comment


            • #13
              Part 1:
              Men:
              100: Hughes
              200: Hughes, Mitchell-Blake
              400: Hudson-Smith, Haydock-Wilson
              800: Wightman
              10000: Butchart
              110h: Pozzi
              4x100: GB

              Women:
              100: Asher-Smith, Neita
              200: Asher-Smith
              800: Hodgkinson
              1500: Muir
              5000: McColgan
              10000: McColgan, Judd
              3000sc: Bird, Pratt
              100h: Sember
              4x100: GB
              4x400: GB

              Part 2-3:
              W Marathon - Brinkman, Dattke, Mayer 2:26.43
              M Shot Put - Mihaljevic, Ponzio, Stanek 21.93
              M LJ - Tentoglu, Montler, Caceres 8.37
              M 5000 - Ingebrigtsen, Katir, Crippa 13:09.48
              M Decathlon - Mayer, Kaul, Ehammer 8764
              W Hammer - Fantini, Tervo, Kopron 74.78
              W 400 - Bol, Klaver, Kaczmarek 49.64
              M 110 Hurdles - Martinez, Czykier, Zhoya 13.18
              M 1500 - Ingebrigtsen, Mario Garcia, Rozmys 3:31.83
              W 5000 - Grovdal, McColgan, Can 14:53.45
              W TJ - Bekh-Romanchuk, Minenko, Makela 14.63
              M 200 - Hughes, Tortu, Mitchell-Blake 19.98
              W 200 - Asher-Smith, Kambundji, Adeleke 21.95
              M PV - Duplantis, Renaud Lavillenie, Lillefosse 6.10
              W 800 - Hodgkinson, Horvat, Lamote 1:57.36
              W Javelin - Muze, Jasiunaite, Tsengko 63.75
              M 4x400 - Belgium, Czech Republic, France 2:59.43
              W 3000 Steeple - Gega, Bird, Pratt 9:11.45
              W HJ - Mahuchikh, Gerashchenko, Vallortigara 2.02
              M 800 - Robert, Wightman, Tual 1:44.78
              M Javelin - Vadlejch, Weber, Vesely 87.76
              M 10,000 - Crippa, Gressier, Kimeli 27:45.49
              W 100 Hurdles - Skrzyszowska, Sember, Visser 12.57
              W 4x100 - Great Britain, Germany, Spain 41.65

              Tiebreaker: 8 PBs

              Comment


              • Balgair
                Balgair commented
                Editing a comment
                Oops, correction: remove Butchart from Part 1, thanks LuckySpikes, surprised I only made one messup!

            • #14
              Balgair, Butchart is only a Reserve in the 10,000.

              Comment


              • #15
                Part 1

                W 100 Asher-Smith, Neita
                W 200 Asher-Smith
                W 800 Hodgkinson, Reekie
                W 1500 Muir
                W 5000 McColgan
                W 10000 McColgan, Judd
                W Steeplechase Bird, Pratt
                W 100H Sember
                M 100 Prescod, Hughes
                M 200 Mitchell-Blake, Hughes
                M 400 Hudson-Smith, Haydock-Wilson
                M 1500 Heyward
                M 110H Pozzi

                W 4x100
                W 4x400
                M 4x100
                M 4x400

                Part 2 & 3

                W Marathon Brinkman, McCormack, Moreira 2:26:53
                M Shot Put Stanek, Mihaljevic, Bukowiecki 21.85
                M LJ Tentoglou, Caceres, Montler 8.33
                M 5000 Ingebrigtsen, Kimeli, Crippa 13:08.41
                M Decathlon Mayer, Uibo, Kaul 8724
                W Hammer Kopron, Fantini, Tervo 74.88
                W 400 Bol, Kaczmarek, Klaver 49.68
                M 110 Hurdles Martinez, Zhoya, Pozzi 13.16
                M 1500 Ingebrigtsen, Heyward, M. Garcia 3:32.15
                W 5000 Klosterhalfen, McColgan, Can 14:55.16
                W TJ Bekh-Romanchuk, Makela, Minenko 14.62
                M 200 Hughes, Zeze, Afrifah 19.99
                W 200 Asher-Smith, Kambundji, Adeleke 22.05
                M PV Duplantis, Lia Baehre, R. Lavillenie 6.22
                W 800 Hodgkinson, Lamote, Reekie 1:57.51
                W Javelin Jasiunaite, Vilagos, Ogrodnikova 64.03
                M 4x400 Belgium, GB, France 2:59.56
                W 3000 Steeple Bird, Gega, Pratt 9:06.31
                W HJ Mahuchikh, Gerashchenko, Vallortigara 2.01
                M 800 Robert, van Diepen, Tual 1:44.35
                M Javelin Vadlejch, Weber, Hofmann 89.32
                M 10,000 Crippa, Gressier, Kimeli 27:30.81
                W 100 Hurdles Skrzyszowska, Sember, Visser 12.53
                W 4x100 GB, Switzerland, Germany 41.83

                TIEBREAKER 7 PBs
                Last edited by DerbyCountyinNZ; 14-08-22, 23:44.

                Comment

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