So, now Eugene is done and dusted, it's time to really address the elephant in the room.
Including multis, one can basically split the field into 18 segments (4 throws, 4 jumps, multi for both men and women). What I thought I'd do here is give each a score out of 5, to see how bad the rot is...
The scoring mechanism I'm going for is about trying to assess relative strength compared to both the World and also GB&NI historically (so not expecting everything to be as strong as our middle distance), so it looks like:
5/5: Event is basically as strong as it has ever been, with multiple athletes able to compete effectively at a Global level and a good pipeline of juniors with good prospects.
4/5: Event has good World-level talent but possibly not the depth that would be perfect, or there is no big star yet but it looks highly likely the picture might change in a few years.
3/5: Event has European-level talent but doesn't look like anyone is going to make it beyond that, and depth isn't a disaster but isn't the best.
2/5: Event is not quite a total write-off with a green shoot or two, but no-one at a top level and not huge prospects of it happening any time soon.
1/5: Lol what event? Total shambles.
So let's dive in:
Jumps
Long Jump Men: 2/5. We have a couple of men who have broken 8m, but there's no real depth and the only two juniors in the all-time U20 list over the last 5 years have not pushed on. Really missing Greg and Chris, especially as the event is not that great at a World level.
Long Jump Women: 4/5. Two women in the World final yesterday, Ugen got World Indoor Bronze, and decent domestic competition for places, although I'd have hoped Lucy Hadaway and a few others would be progressing a bit better. Also, we always seem to have good multi-event jumpers, which helps!
Triple Jump Men: 1/5. I nearly gave this a 2 because of Ben Williams, but he is so inconsistent and injured all the time. Behind him, only two other men over 16m?! In 2019 there were 8. No idea where the next GB 17m jumper is coming from, pretty dire.
Triple Jump Women: 3/5. Naomi Metzger is looking like she isn't going to be able to become the 14.50m regular we were hoping, and behind her the depth is ok but not amazing, although Temi Ojora was 4th at the European Juniors last year. Libby White, 2nd on the U17 all-time list, is a prospect.
High Jump Men: 3/5. Clarke-Khan has progressed well even if he was outclassed at the World level, if he is fit Tom Gale is a World-Class talent (remember, he made the Olympic final carrying an injury last year) and there are a couple of decent juniors springing about, although no-one who screams 'next 2.30m jumper' yet.
High Jump Women: 4/5. It's not quite as it was when KJT, Pooley and Morgan Lake were all clearing 1.95+ a few years back, but we had two women in Eugene (even if Lake couldn't compete), Lake made the Olympic final last year and Zialor, Manson (injured) and KJT have all cleared 1.90. The bench doesn't look great, so risks this could downgrade to a 3 soon unless some talent appears.
Pole Vault Men: 3/5. This one baffles me. A few years ago it looked like GB would have a swathe of men at 5.60m and above, but people have retired, got injured, plateaued etc. Coppell was 7th in Tokyo and Lazarus Benjamin and Owen Heard are promising, but the event has moved on so much that what looked good before won't cut it.
Pole Vault Women: 4/5. Bradshaw is obviously World Class but won't be around forever, Caudery is coming good, and there are a decent bunch of juniors in Tutton and Ashurst coming through.
Throws
Shot Putt Men: 3/5. Lots of this on Lincoln, and what he proves, in that Shot Putt takes time to develop and you won't necessarily be a World Beater at 20. If Byng or Zatat can follow his trajectory the more the better, while Kambamba Delaney shows real promise.
Shot Putt Women: 5/5. The first 5! McKinna has made Global finals, 5th to 8th on the UK all-time list competed at the UK Champs this year while Agyepong and Stevens both got medals at the European U18 Championships, and it appears UK coaches are learning the athleticism required to make the event work.
Discus Men: 3/5. A hard one to track... 2 men at the Worlds including the British record holder, and 5 of the all-time top 20 currently competing is ok, but it's still a little frustrating. Osammor is a big talent, in prospect and size.
Discus Women: 2/5. Jade Lally gonna keep on Jade Lallying, but behind there isn't a whole lot going on. Lally being at the Worlds prevents this being a 1, let's just say that.
Hammer Men: 5/5. Finally some good news. Miller and Campbell (when uninjured) are top 2 British all-time and both capable of making major finals (although Miller is yet to get the medal his talent should demand), and there seems to be a steady stream of 70m throws coming through, which means one or two take the next step. The only disappointment is Norris, who looked like he was going to be the next big thing with World Junior Gold in 2018, although there is still time.
Hammer Women: 5/5. Sure, there's no Sophie Hitchon any more, but when more British women have broken 70m from April 2022 to now than from 20,000 BC to March 2022, you know an event is heading in the right direction (along with 2-6 on the UK all-time list having thrown their PBs in the last year. Odds are at least one of these women gets to 74m+, if not more. Excellent stuff.
Javelin Men: 1/5. The reason the 1 was there. 74m to win the UK Championships isn't the worst it has ever been, but when Niklas Kaul could rock up and win it mid-decathlon, life ain't great. Maybe Benjamin East could be the 70m+ British junior who finally progresses to 85m, but we've been saying that for years.
Javelin Women: 1/5. The other reason the 1 was there. Fun fact, more women broke 53m in the Heptathlon final than have in GB this year. Dire.
Decathlon Men: 2/5. You know what, there are some green shoots here. The introduction of Decathlon into the UK Champs is excellent, and it's pleasing to see some home grown juniors progressing as Seniors in Kendall and Church. Looking younger, if Fotheringham is fit, he looks like he could be a bit special.
Heptathlon Women: 4/5. This could be a 5, but at the top we've not got a fit Jess or KJT doing the business. But fundamentally, the UK heptathlon conveyor belt keeps on rolling. Mills could hit a 6400 at the Euros, O'Dowda has progressed well and there are a swathe of juniors looking like they could hit 6000 in the next two years. The lineage continues.
So where does that leave us?
Overall, 3 5s, 4 4s, 5 3s, 3 2s and 3 1s. But splitting it men and women:
Men: 1 5, 4 3s, 2 2s and 2 1s
Women: 2 5s, 4 4s, 1 3 and 1 2.
This tallies, since looking at entries in the field, especially jumps, our women are generally better (less bad?), but overall it's a not a great picture that the average event is a 3 (and the Hammer is the only real success). The difficulty is, how to resolve this and get the field, or at least more parts of it, looking like the sprints and middle distances, both of which are in rude health. Any ideas?
Including multis, one can basically split the field into 18 segments (4 throws, 4 jumps, multi for both men and women). What I thought I'd do here is give each a score out of 5, to see how bad the rot is...
The scoring mechanism I'm going for is about trying to assess relative strength compared to both the World and also GB&NI historically (so not expecting everything to be as strong as our middle distance), so it looks like:
5/5: Event is basically as strong as it has ever been, with multiple athletes able to compete effectively at a Global level and a good pipeline of juniors with good prospects.
4/5: Event has good World-level talent but possibly not the depth that would be perfect, or there is no big star yet but it looks highly likely the picture might change in a few years.
3/5: Event has European-level talent but doesn't look like anyone is going to make it beyond that, and depth isn't a disaster but isn't the best.
2/5: Event is not quite a total write-off with a green shoot or two, but no-one at a top level and not huge prospects of it happening any time soon.
1/5: Lol what event? Total shambles.
So let's dive in:
Jumps
Long Jump Men: 2/5. We have a couple of men who have broken 8m, but there's no real depth and the only two juniors in the all-time U20 list over the last 5 years have not pushed on. Really missing Greg and Chris, especially as the event is not that great at a World level.
Long Jump Women: 4/5. Two women in the World final yesterday, Ugen got World Indoor Bronze, and decent domestic competition for places, although I'd have hoped Lucy Hadaway and a few others would be progressing a bit better. Also, we always seem to have good multi-event jumpers, which helps!
Triple Jump Men: 1/5. I nearly gave this a 2 because of Ben Williams, but he is so inconsistent and injured all the time. Behind him, only two other men over 16m?! In 2019 there were 8. No idea where the next GB 17m jumper is coming from, pretty dire.
Triple Jump Women: 3/5. Naomi Metzger is looking like she isn't going to be able to become the 14.50m regular we were hoping, and behind her the depth is ok but not amazing, although Temi Ojora was 4th at the European Juniors last year. Libby White, 2nd on the U17 all-time list, is a prospect.
High Jump Men: 3/5. Clarke-Khan has progressed well even if he was outclassed at the World level, if he is fit Tom Gale is a World-Class talent (remember, he made the Olympic final carrying an injury last year) and there are a couple of decent juniors springing about, although no-one who screams 'next 2.30m jumper' yet.
High Jump Women: 4/5. It's not quite as it was when KJT, Pooley and Morgan Lake were all clearing 1.95+ a few years back, but we had two women in Eugene (even if Lake couldn't compete), Lake made the Olympic final last year and Zialor, Manson (injured) and KJT have all cleared 1.90. The bench doesn't look great, so risks this could downgrade to a 3 soon unless some talent appears.
Pole Vault Men: 3/5. This one baffles me. A few years ago it looked like GB would have a swathe of men at 5.60m and above, but people have retired, got injured, plateaued etc. Coppell was 7th in Tokyo and Lazarus Benjamin and Owen Heard are promising, but the event has moved on so much that what looked good before won't cut it.
Pole Vault Women: 4/5. Bradshaw is obviously World Class but won't be around forever, Caudery is coming good, and there are a decent bunch of juniors in Tutton and Ashurst coming through.
Throws
Shot Putt Men: 3/5. Lots of this on Lincoln, and what he proves, in that Shot Putt takes time to develop and you won't necessarily be a World Beater at 20. If Byng or Zatat can follow his trajectory the more the better, while Kambamba Delaney shows real promise.
Shot Putt Women: 5/5. The first 5! McKinna has made Global finals, 5th to 8th on the UK all-time list competed at the UK Champs this year while Agyepong and Stevens both got medals at the European U18 Championships, and it appears UK coaches are learning the athleticism required to make the event work.
Discus Men: 3/5. A hard one to track... 2 men at the Worlds including the British record holder, and 5 of the all-time top 20 currently competing is ok, but it's still a little frustrating. Osammor is a big talent, in prospect and size.
Discus Women: 2/5. Jade Lally gonna keep on Jade Lallying, but behind there isn't a whole lot going on. Lally being at the Worlds prevents this being a 1, let's just say that.
Hammer Men: 5/5. Finally some good news. Miller and Campbell (when uninjured) are top 2 British all-time and both capable of making major finals (although Miller is yet to get the medal his talent should demand), and there seems to be a steady stream of 70m throws coming through, which means one or two take the next step. The only disappointment is Norris, who looked like he was going to be the next big thing with World Junior Gold in 2018, although there is still time.
Hammer Women: 5/5. Sure, there's no Sophie Hitchon any more, but when more British women have broken 70m from April 2022 to now than from 20,000 BC to March 2022, you know an event is heading in the right direction (along with 2-6 on the UK all-time list having thrown their PBs in the last year. Odds are at least one of these women gets to 74m+, if not more. Excellent stuff.
Javelin Men: 1/5. The reason the 1 was there. 74m to win the UK Championships isn't the worst it has ever been, but when Niklas Kaul could rock up and win it mid-decathlon, life ain't great. Maybe Benjamin East could be the 70m+ British junior who finally progresses to 85m, but we've been saying that for years.
Javelin Women: 1/5. The other reason the 1 was there. Fun fact, more women broke 53m in the Heptathlon final than have in GB this year. Dire.
Decathlon Men: 2/5. You know what, there are some green shoots here. The introduction of Decathlon into the UK Champs is excellent, and it's pleasing to see some home grown juniors progressing as Seniors in Kendall and Church. Looking younger, if Fotheringham is fit, he looks like he could be a bit special.
Heptathlon Women: 4/5. This could be a 5, but at the top we've not got a fit Jess or KJT doing the business. But fundamentally, the UK heptathlon conveyor belt keeps on rolling. Mills could hit a 6400 at the Euros, O'Dowda has progressed well and there are a swathe of juniors looking like they could hit 6000 in the next two years. The lineage continues.
So where does that leave us?
Overall, 3 5s, 4 4s, 5 3s, 3 2s and 3 1s. But splitting it men and women:
Men: 1 5, 4 3s, 2 2s and 2 1s
Women: 2 5s, 4 4s, 1 3 and 1 2.
This tallies, since looking at entries in the field, especially jumps, our women are generally better (less bad?), but overall it's a not a great picture that the average event is a 3 (and the Hammer is the only real success). The difficulty is, how to resolve this and get the field, or at least more parts of it, looking like the sprints and middle distances, both of which are in rude health. Any ideas?
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