Lausanne DL 26th August - What time will Karsten Warholm run in the flat 400?

[LuckySpikes]

Even though it's not a particularly strong field (a non-DL race), that doesn't seem to affect him in the hurdles very much. I think he's taking down Schoenlebe's 44.33 European Record for sure and I don't think it'll even be close.

The BBC weather for Lausanne says at 8pm (just a few minutes after he'll race) that it'll be 19 degrees C, with a 4mph wind and 1% chance of rain.

I'll say 43.74 WL !

[Ladyloz]

I think the European Record will definitely go (incredible how it's lasted so long) but I think he'll run just outside 44 seconds. I'll go 44.07.

[philipo]

The only real question to me here is if he has recovered from his Tokyo antics, and given the sprinters' performances as a whole in Eugene, I think by in large they have.

On that basis, I'm going with 43.87, though a part of me what he could have done a few weeks ago, in Tokyo, though some champions in the sprints again have run quicker than in Tokyo, so he may run quicker than he would have done.

even if his differential is only 2 seconds that could indicate 43.91. i think mid 43 60 is not impossible if the wind holds off and it is Lausanne!!

[treadwater1]

I see the Warholm race starts just before the broadcast window, another example of athletics not helping itself. I’ll go for 44.10.

[Laps]

Outside 44.0 for me.
It is expecting too much for him to produce another massive performance when there is nothing at stake.

[Sovietvest]

Best comparator I can think of was Harald Schmid, who ran 44.92 in 1979, when he was a 47.85 hurdler - nearly a 3 second differential. I think Warholm was no slower than 43.5 runner in Tokyo, so allowing for a slower track and him being post his season peak, I think he runs 43.9x.

[philipo]

I see the Warholm race starts just before the broadcast window, another example of athletics not helping itself. I’ll go for 44.10.

ruddy annoying.!

[Ursus]

Definitely capable of sub 44, but lots of variables as others have said. He’s clearly been in the shape of his life and I have a sneaky suspicion that a fast flat will have been one of his objectives. Just a couple of performances to think about:

His 44.87 NR dates back to 2017. His 400H SB was 48.22 set a couple of weeks after the World Champs.

At the 2020 Stockholm DL he managed a 45.05 an hour and a half after a 46.87 DL and National Record.

Benjamin’s best set a couple of years ago is 44.31.

I’m going for 43.99.

[LuckySpikes]

I see the Warholm race starts just before the broadcast window, another example of athletics not helping itself. I’ll go for 44.10.

I know that WA are precious about their 2 hour max TV window but surely they realise there's fans who want to see the "pre-program" at DL meetings? Would it really hurt WA or the DL to just provide a YouTube stream of that?

Anyway, see the Live Streaming Links thread in half an hour or so for how anyone with a VPN can watch Warholm's race and the W 200 & W 800 that precede it. Unfortunately, I can't find an unofficial stream that works for that TV channel.

[treadwater1]

The word on Twitter was that the German broadcaster would be showing some of the pre-program

[CAML]

If Warholm and Benjamin raced over 400 metres my money would be on Benjamin, who with his sub 20, 200 meters time has far more speed than Warholm. I think Warholm is the most efficient 400 meters hurdler in history, who has got the differential down to 1.5 seconds. He'll run a pb, but I'll be even more shocked than Tokyo if he runs a 43.

[jjimbojames]

Agreed. The Tokyo track is also quick, so I knock a few tenths down for that

[Christy93]

I think Warholm would be closer to Benjamin over 200 than people seem to think. He went through 200 in 21.3 indoors a couple of years ago, and has put up some incredible 200 splits en route to 400h clockings. He has proper gears imo.

[treadwater1]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Warholm could run sub 20 as well, if not 20.0. He is lethal out of the blocks

[LuckySpikes]

treadwater1 , it seems you can no longer search on Twitter without being logged in? (I'm not a member).

Anyway, Sky Deutschland broadcast the DL but their Lausanne broadcast is only starting at 7pm UK time as well.

Although the free Hola browser extension/add-on only works for an hour at a time now, it would be an option for that half hour for anyone who doesn't have a "proper" VPN.

[treadwater1]

The pre-program will be on SRF which is a Swiss channel, rather than German

[LuckySpikes]

No, the pre-program from 6.30pm is on RTS Deux (also a Swiss channel) - already linked in the Live Streaming Links document.

SRF are only showing it from 7pm as well.

[Christy93]

Thomas Randolph wins the 800 'B' race very convincingly in 1.47.52, rest all outside 1.48, including Charlie Grice. Confirms his run in Finland was no fluke.

[Ursus]

No-one guessed 45.51....

[LuckySpikes]

Well, Warholm not what I was expecting!

In the interview with him they said it was windy and he said he didn't have it in his legs today.