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PREDICTION CONTEST - Tokyo 2020NE Olympic Games

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  • PREDICTION CONTEST - Tokyo 2020NE Olympic Games

    OK, are you ready for the big one?!

    Please note below the requested format for posting your entry - it really does help me zip through tallying the scores if the info is in the same order for all contestants.

    The event entries are listed at https://www.worldathletics.org/compe...32391/athletes You can check athlete's profiles by clicking on their name and then clicking "Athlete Profile" bottom right. Alternatively, you can do that via the WA Toplists which I have linked in the comments. I have also linked there to the collection of WA event-by-event previews.

    I have reserved post #2 below for listing any significant Withdrawals. If anyone spots any, please post the info in this thread. I will also endeavour to keep an eye open. Please check this list and, if necessary, amend your contest entry before submitting it.

    If you need any clarification on anything, please ask away!


    Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH TOP 6 FINISHES
    Predict which British athletes you think will finish in the Top 6.

    Because some athletes are doubling, please specify which event you think they will finish Top 6 in.
    For the relay teams, you don't need to name the individual athletes, you just need to say "Great Britain" if you think they will finish Top 6.

    For context here are the number of GB Top 6 finishes in the last 5 Olympics:
    2000 - 18
    2004 - 13
    2008 - 14
    2012 - 15
    2016 - 17


    Scoring
    Remember there is some jeopardy involved, so while you will score 16 points for each correct prediction, you will also lose 16 points for each incorrect prediction.

    Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
    Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for each of the 24 events below.

    You will see I have requested a little more for those events where Miller-Uibo & Hassan have yet to decide and for the events where 4 Ethiopians are still listed on the entries. It's messy but unavoidable at present.

    The events are listed in the order they will be completed. I have attempted to pick the most open events. I know the medalists in the Men's 400 Hurdles aren't particularly open but I think it very interesting for the Warholm/Benjamin battle and also for the Part 3 Winning Mark (remember, we expected a super-fast time in the Doha 2019 final but didn't get it).

    M 10,000 - Please predict the first 4
    M Discus
    M High Jump
    M 100
    W 100 Hurdles
    M Long Jump
    W Discus
    W 5000 - Please predict the first 5 (Hassan AND Ethiopia causing issues here!)
    W Long Jump
    M 400 Hurdles
    W 800
    W 200 - Please predict the first 4
    W 3000 Steeplechase - If an Ethiopian is amongst your medalists, please predict the first 4
    M 800
    M Hammer
    M 400
    W Pole Vault
    M Decathlon
    M 5000 - Please predict the first 4
    W 400 - Please predict the first 4
    W Javelin
    M 4 x 100 Relay
    W Marathon - Please predict the first 4
    W 4 x 400m Relay


    Scoring
    6 points - Correct gold medal prediction
    4 points - Correct silver medal prediction
    4 points - Correct bronze medal prediction
    2 points - any medalist predicted as medalling but not in the correct podium position

    So, for each event there is a maximum of 14 points available.


    Part 3 - PREDICT THE WINNING MARKS
    Predict the winning mark for each of the 24 events above.

    Scoring
    This will be done on a percentage basis ...
    There are 16 points available for each event.

    For track events & marathon ...
    5 points scored if you are within 1% but greater than 0.5% either side of the winning mark
    8 points if you are within 0.5% but greater than 0.25% away
    12 points if you are within 0.25% away but not exactly correct
    16 points for an exact prediction

    For field events & combined events ...
    Scoring is the same but the percentages you can be within are doubled so 5 points = 2% to 1% away; 8 points = 1% to 0.5%; 12 points = within 0.5%; 16 points = exact prediction

    Some examples ...
    If the Women's 800 is won in 2:00.00 scoring would be as follows:
    5 points for a prediction in the 1:58.80 to 1:59.41 range or in the 2:00.61 to 2:01.20 range
    8 points for a prediction in the 1:59.40 to 1:59.69 range or in the 2:00.31 to 2:00.60 range
    12 points for a prediction in the 1:59.70 to 1:59.99 range or in the 2:00.01 to 2:00.30 range
    16 points for 2:00.00 !

    If the Men's Long Jump is won in 8.00 scoring would be as follows:
    5 points for a prediction in the 8.09 to 8.16 range or in the 7.84 to 7.91 range
    8 points for a prediction in the 8.05 to 8.08 range or in the 7.92 to 7.95 range
    12 points for a prediction in the 8.01 to 8.04 range or in the 7.96 to 7.99 range
    16 points for 8.00 !


    TIEBREAKER
    Predict the number of British athletes who leave the Games with a PB.

    If say Dina PBs in the 100 and 200 that counts as 2 PBs. However, if she PBs twice in the 100 that counts as only 1 PB. If a NR is broken in the relays that counts as 1 PB. In the Heptathlon PBs in individual events do not count, only a final score PB counts.

    The tiebreaker will only be used, if necessary, to determine our Gold Medal winner.


    FORMAT OF YOUR ENTRY
    For Part 1, please post all your Women's British Top 6 picks first and then your Men's, and put them in some sort of conventional event order.

    For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line, e.g.,
    W 800: Reekie, Hodgkinson, Bell 1:53.27
    ...

    Please check that for Parts 2 & 3 you have predicted all 24 events.

    If any athletes in an event share a surname, please be clear about which athlete you are choosing.


    CLOSING TIME FOR ENTRIES & EDITING YOUR ENTRY
    The closing time for your entry is 12.50am (ie, early morning) UK time on Friday 30th July - that's 10 minutes before the first event starts. Up to that point you can edit your team as many times as you wish - please do so by editing your original post if you know how to. That helps me enormously. Edits can not be made after the closing time.

    Note: If editing more than once, err on the side of caution and leave at least an hour between edits to avoid the forum software flagging your post "Unapproved".


    OTHER INFO
    If any of your Part 1 predictions is a DNS in your specified event you will not be deducted points for that athlete's failure to finish Top 6.

    Interim contest scores will be provided after:
    - Day 4 (8 of our 24 events completed)
    - Day 6 (14 of our 24 events completed)
    - Day 7 (18 of our 24 events completed)
    Due to the inconvenient UK viewing times, please be patient waiting for these to be posted - I want to watch the events first before calculating scores and I may not be able to watch them live!

    I do double-check the scoring but if you think I've still made an error, please do not hesitate to query it.


    FORM GUIDE?
    At our most recent Prediction Contest, the 2021 European Indoors,
    Laps was a clear winner.
    Occasional Hope
    Senior Member
    Occasional Hope took the Silver medal, one point ahead of
    LuckySpikes
    Senior Member
    LuckySpikes who was 3 points ahead of the 4th placers.

    Right, that's enough gabbing from me! Good luck, everyone!
    LuckySpikes
    Senior Member
    Last edited by LuckySpikes; 23-07-21, 21:33.

  • #2
    Hmm, I can't comment on post #1 so here's those links ...

    Latest Entry Lists (as at 26 July and clarifying Ethiopia's 3 per event) - https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olym...----------.pdf

    WA Toplists - https://www.worldathletics.org/recor...en/senior/2021
    WA Event-by-Event Previews - https://www.worldathletics.org/compe.../news/previews

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Significant WITHDRAWALS

    M 10,000 - Geoffrey Kamworor (KEN)
    M 1500 - Taoufik Makhloufi (ALG)
    M 5000 - Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR)


    Significant ADDITIONS

    M 3000 Steeplechase - Lamecha Girma (ETH)
    M 10,000 - Rhonex Kipruto (replacing Geoffrey Kamworor)
    LuckySpikes
    Senior Member
    Last edited by LuckySpikes; 28-07-21, 14:30.

    Comment


    • #3
      For the first time in one of our Prediction Contests I've had to add a Significant ADDITIONS list to post #2.

      Comment


      • #4
        No entries yet. Hmm ... is this a case of who blinks first ...

        Comment


        • #5
          OK, here's mine. Some are more, er, informed guesses than others

          Part 1 – British top 6 places

          Women
          Dina Asher-Smith, 100 and 200
          Jemma Reekie
          Keely Hodgkinson
          Laura Muir
          Cindy Sember
          Lorraine Ugen
          Holly Bradshaw
          4 x 1
          4 x 4

          Men
          Adam Gemili
          Elliot Giles
          Oliver Dustin
          Josh Kerr
          Jake Wightman
          4 x 1

          Parts 2 and 3 – medallists

          M 10,000 – Please predict the first 4
          1 Jacob Kiplimo, 2 Hagos Gebriwhet, 3 Joshua Cheptegei, 4 Yomif Kejelcha
          26.57

          M Discus
          1 Kristian Ceh, 2 Daniel Stahl, 3 Lukas Weisshaidinger
          70.40

          M High Jump
          1 Ilya Ivanyuk, 2 Maxim Nedesekau, 3 Mutaz Essa Barshim
          2.40

          M 100m
          1 Trayvon Bromell, 2 Akani Simbine, 3 Rornie Baker
          9.81
          W 100 Hurdles
          1 Jasmine Camacho-Quinn, 2 Kendra Harrison, 3 Pia Skrzy***
          12.23

          M Long Jump
          1 Yuki Hashioka, 2 Miltiadis Tentoglou, 3 Tobias Montler
          8.41

          W Discus
          1 Jorinda Van Klinken, 2 Valarie Allman, 3 Sandra Perkovic
          70.35

          W 5000 – Please predict the first 5 (Hassan AND Ethiopia causing issues here!)
          1 Gudaf Tsegay, 2 Sifan Hassan, 3 Ejgayehu Taye, 4 Fantu Worku, 5 Senbere Teferi
          14.48.18

          W Long Jump
          1 Tara Davis, 2 Brittney Reese, 3 Ese Brume
          7.17

          M 400 Hurdles
          1 Karsten Warholm, 2 Rai Benjamin, 3 Alison dos Santos
          46.68

          W 800
          1 Werkwuha Getachew, 2 Jemma Reekie, 3 Rose Mary Almanza
          1.56.01

          W 200 – Please predict the first 4
          1 Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, 2 Gabrielle Thomas, 3 Shaunae Miller-Uibo, 4 Dina Asher-Smith
          21.56

          W 3000 Steeplechase – If an Ethiopian is amongst your medalists, please predict the first 4
          1 Beatrice Chepkoech, 2 Mekides Abebe, 3 Winifred Yavi, 4 Emma Coburn
          9.07.13

          M 800
          1 Patrik Dobek, 2 Elliot Giles, 3 Jesus Tonatiu Lopez
          1.43.58

          M Hammer
          1 Pawel Fajdek, 2 Quentin Bigot, 3 Mikhailo Kokhan
          82.87

          M 400
          1 Steven Gardiner, 2 Wade van Niekerk, 3 Randolph Ross
          44.47

          W Pole Vault
          1 Katie Nageotte, 2 Anzhelika Sidorova, 3 Sandi Morris
          4.95

          M Decathlon
          1 Damian Warner, 2 Niklas Kaul, 3 Kevin Mayer
          8840

          M 5000 – Please predict the first 4
          1 Jakob Ingebrigtsen, 2 Mohammed Katir, 3 Joshua Cheptegei, 4 Jacob Kiplimo
          12.53


          W 400 – Please predict the first 4
          1. Stephenie Ann McPherson, 2 Quanera Hayes, 3 Shaunae Miller-Uibo, 4 Allyson Felix
          49.58
          W Javelin
          1 Maria Andreczyk, 2 Christin Hussong, 3 Yuzhen Yu
          70.15

          M 4 x 100 Relay
          1 Canada, 2 GB, 3 Japan
          38.26

          W Marathon - Please predict the first 4
          1 Ruth Chepngetich, 2 Mao Ichiyama, 3 Peres Jepchirchir
          2.22.24

          W 4 x 400m Relay
          1 USA, 2 Jamaica, 3 GB
          3.17.50

          Tiebreaker
          Brit PBs 15
          Occasional Hope
          Senior Member
          Last edited by Occasional Hope; 27-07-21, 00:29.

          Comment


        • #6
          Originally posted by carterhatch View Post
          No entries yet. Hmm ... is this a case of who blinks first ...
          I intend my entry on Thursday just in case of an y nasty injuries or covid problems. I am basically ready with my choices and it may well be a very close competition. Whether to go with DAS is a quandary.

          Comment


        • #7
          Thanks @Occasional Hope for getting the ball rolling. You might want to look at the Men's 800 again - Timothy Cheruiyot isn't entered in that!

          Nice to see a LuckySpikes fave, Mao Ichiyama, on your Marathon podium!

          Comment


        • #8
          Part 1 British top six places - (More in hope than expectation)

          19 Top six (# 7 medals)

          WOMEN
          100m:
          Dina Asher-Smith,
          200m: Dina Asher-Smith#,
          400m: Jodie Williams,
          800m: Jemma Reekie#
          1500m: Laura Muir#
          5000m: Eilish McColgan
          100m hurdles: Cindy Sember
          Pole vault: Holly Bradshaw#
          Long jump: Lorraine Ugen

          Heptathlon: Katarina Johnson-Thompson#
          4x100m #
          4x400m
          MEN
          100m: Zharnel Hughes,
          800m: , Elliot Giles#,
          1500m: Josh Kerr, Jake Wightman
          110m hurdles: Andrew Pozzi
          Discus: Lawrence Okoye
          4x100m: #

          Parts 2 and 3 – Medallists

          M 10,000 - Please predict the first 4
          Kiplimo Aregawi Kwemoi Kejelchar 27:03.35

          M Discus
          Stahl
          Čeh Weißhaidinger 71.23

          M High Jump
          Ivanyuk Nedasekau Barshim 2.38

          M 100
          Bromell DeGrasse Blake 9.85

          W 100 Hurdles
          Harrison Amusan Sember 12.54

          M Long Jump
          Echevarria Gayle Tentoglou 8.42

          W Discus

          PerkoviĆ Van Klinken PÉrez 70.32

          W 5000 - Please predict the first 5 (Hassan AND Ethiopia causing issues here!)

          Obiri Tsegay Hassan Teferi McColgan 14:36.01

          W Long Jump
          Mahimbo ŠpanoviĆ Ugen 6.98

          M 400 Hurdles
          Warholm Dos Santos Benjamin 46.55

          W 800
          Goule Rogers Reekie 1:58.3

          W 200 - Please predict the first 4
          Miller-Uibo Asher-Smith Thompson-Herah Fraser-Pryce 21.83

          W 3000 Steeplechase - If an Ethiopian is amongst your medalists, please predict the first 4

          Kiyeng Chepkoech Coburn 9:06.44

          M 800
          Arop Dobek Giles 1:43.76

          M Hammer
          Winkler Fajdek Bigot 82.03

          M 400
          Makwala Gardiner James 43.95

          W Pole Vault
          Sidorova Morris Bradshaw 4.91

          M Decathlon
          Mayer Warner Uibo 9021

          M 5000 - Please predict the first 4
          Gebrhiwet Ingebrigtsen Katir Ahmed 13.05

          W 400 - Please predict the first 4
          Miller-Uibo Macpherson McLeod Jodie Williams 48.78

          W Javelin
          Hussong ŠpotÁkovÁ Liu Shiying 68.44

          M 4 x 100 Relay
          USA GB Canada 37.12

          W Marathon - Please predict the first 4
          Chepngetich Kosgei Ichiyama Chumba 2:27.45

          W 4 x 400m
          Relay Jamaica USA GB 3:18.04


          Tie Breaker British PBs - 17
          carterhatch
          Senior Member
          Last edited by carterhatch; 27-07-21, 15:01.

          Comment


          • #9
            carterhatch
            Senior Member
            carterhatch , Luvo Manyonga is not in the Long Jump (he's been banned for Whereabouts failures).

            Comment


            • carterhatch
              carterhatch
              Senior Member
              carterhatch commented
              Editing a comment
              Oh, I really should pay more attention to the 'latest doping news' thread Thanks for letting me know. - I'm amazed my distance running selections aren't all from the 80s as its not my area of specialism ...

          • #10
            Uh oh,
            carterhatch
            Senior Member
            carterhatch ... I was looking to see who you replaced Manyonga with and your post has disappeared! Presumably you'll be able to see it (when logged in) but it will have been marked as "Unapproved" ? You can private message Admin via https://forum.athleticsweekly.com/member/2-aw-admin to ask for it to be approved. But, from experience, that doesn't always happen quickly. Alternatively, you could copy and paste your predictions from that Unapproved post and post them all again.

            Just a reminder to contestants - don't do two separate edits in quick succession, to be on the safe side it's best to wait an hour between them (I don't know if that was the issue with your edit
            carterhatch
            Senior Member
            carterhatch ?)
            LuckySpikes
            Senior Member
            Last edited by LuckySpikes; 27-07-21, 15:27.

            Comment


            • carterhatch
              carterhatch
              Senior Member
              carterhatch commented
              Editing a comment
              yes, I have fallen foul of some unexplained disapproval, both with my original and edited version I can only imagine it has something to do with the use of a symbol to denote my GB medallists (for my own amusement) ... email sent to admin (again)

          • #11
            Originally posted by LuckySpikes View Post
            Thanks @Occasional Hope for getting the ball rolling. You might want to look at the Men's 800 again - Timothy Cheruiyot isn't entered in that!

            Nice to see a LuckySpikes fave, Mao Ichiyama, on your Marathon podium!
            she is on mine; home town gal??

            Comment


            • #12
              Part 1.

              Men:
              800 - Giles
              1500 - Kerr
              4x100 R
              Women:
              100, 200 - Asher-Smith
              800 - Reekie
              1500 - Muir
              100h - Sember
              PV - Bradshaw
              4x100 R


              Part 2 and 3

              M 10,000 : Cheptegei, Kejelcha, Kipruto, Barega - 27:04.84
              M Discus : Stahl, Gudzius, Ceh - 70.32
              M High Jump : Harrison, Sullivan, Ivanyuk - 2.36
              M 100 : Baker, Simbine, Bromell - 9.78
              W 100 Hurdles : Camacho-Quinn, Harrison, Clemons - 12.37
              M Long Jump : Harrison, Echevarría, Tentoglou - 8.56
              W Discus : Allman, van Klinken, Perkovic - 68.92
              W 5000 :- Hassan, Tsegay, Obiri, Senbere Tefere, Rengeruk - 14:47.20
              W Long Jump : Davis, Mihambo, Reese - 7.13
              M 400 Hurdles : Warholm, Benjamin, dos Santos - 46.82
              W 800 : Mu, Reekie, Almanza - 1:57.41
              W 200 : Miller-Uibo, Asher-Smith, Thomas, Fraser-Pryce - 21.67
              W 3000 Steeplechase : Chepkoech, Kiyeng, Coburn, Krause - 9:04.72
              M 800 : Korir, Dobek, Murphy - 1:43.15
              M Hammer : Fajdek, Winkler, Nowicki - 81.03
              M 400 : Norman, Gardiner, van Niekerk - 44:05
              W Pole Vault : Nageotte, Morris, Sidorova - 5.00
              M Decathlon : Mayer, Warner, Scantling - 8942
              M 5000 :- Kimeli, Kiplimo, Wale, Ingebrigtsen - 13:02.44
              W 400 : Miller-Uibo, Felix, McLeod, Hayes - 49.02
              W Javelin : Andrejczyk, Lu Huihui, Hussong - 67.40
              M 4 x 100 Relay : USA, Japan, South Africa - 37.98
              W Marathon : Dibaba, Jepchirchir, Kosgei, Chepngetich - 2:24:43
              W 4 x 400m Relay : USA, Jamaica, Poland - 3:21.08

              Pb's : 14
              MBChristie
              Junior Member
              Last edited by MBChristie; 27-07-21, 23:29.

              Comment


              • LuckySpikes
                LuckySpikes
                Senior Member
                LuckySpikes commented
                Editing a comment
                An accidental ommission or hedging bets? Cause I see DAS predicted for 2nd in the 200 ...

                By the way, I'm loving the variety in the predictions in the first 3 entries (@carterhatch's post currently being "Unapproved")
                LuckySpikes
                Senior Member
                Last edited by LuckySpikes; 27-07-21, 17:38.

              • Walsh7
                Walsh7
                Junior Member
                Walsh7 commented
                Editing a comment
                MBChristie, you might want to fix the typo on your men's 100 time. I don't think you meant the winning time to be 10.78.

              • SprintRelayFan
                SprintRelayFan
                Senior Member
                SprintRelayFan commented
                Editing a comment
                If it is then maybe Prescod could medal after all

            • #13
              Updated entries with the Ethiopian teams of 3 confirmed - via https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olym...cs/reports.htm

              For those who've already posted, just leave your Top 4/5 predictions in Part 2 as is - it's not worth riskingyour post becoming "Unapproved".

              Hassan still entered in 3 events and Miller-Uibo still in the 200 and 400. Rhonex Kipruto confirmed as Kamworor's replacement in the 10,000.

              Comment


              • #14
                I'm not sure I'm clever enough to do this, but as a heads up Ingebritsen has pulled from the 5K

                Comment


              • #15
                This took me ages. Like Reece Prescod, I was meant to be doing the paid job, but instead ate a Kit Kat and ploughed through the rankings ! Please let me know if I have made any errors in entries, such as athletes who aren't competing (not in predictions, you disagree with). Thank you for organising
                LuckySpikes
                Senior Member
                LuckySpikes
                GB Top 6
                WOMEN
                Asher-Smith 100m
                Asher-Smith 200m
                Hodgkinson, Reekie 800
                Muir 1500
                Sember 100mH
                Ugen, Sawyer Long Jump
                Bradshaw PV
                Heptathlon KJT
                4x1
                4x4
                4x4 mixed
                MEN
                Gemili 200m
                Giles 800
                Wightman 1500
                Pozzi 110mH
                4x1
                4x4 mixed
                M 10,000 Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Kejelcha 26.40.50
                M Discus Stahl, Weisshaidinger, Gudzius 70.10
                M High Jump Harrison, Ivanyuk, Nedasekau 2.40
                M 100 Bromell, Simbini, Kerley 9.72
                W 100 Hurdles Camacho- Quinn, Harrison, Amusan 12.31
                M Long Jump Harrison, Echevarria, Tentoglou 8.50
                W Discus Allman, Perez, Van Klinken 70.10
                W 5000 - Please predict the first 5 Tsegay, Hassan, Obiri, Gidey, Teferi 14.14.22
                W Long Jump Brume, Reese, Mahimbo 7.25m
                M 400 Hurdles Warholm, Benjamin, Dos Santos 46.68
                W 800 Mu, Getachew, Goule 1.55.50
                W 200 - Please predict the first 4 Miller-Uibo, Thomas, Fraser-Pryce, Asher-Smith, 21.69
                W 3000 Steeplechase Abebe, Chepkoech, Yavi 9.01.51
                M 800 Amos, Korir, Murphy 1.42.95
                M Hammer Fajdek, Nowicki, Bigot 82.50
                M 400 Van Niekirk, Norman, Randolph 43.76
                W Pole Vault Sidorova, Nageotte, Morris 4.95
                M Decathlon Warner, Mayer, Scantling 8885
                M 5000 Ahmad, Katir, Knight 12.48.91
                W 400 - Please predict the first 4 Miller-Uibo, Mcpherson, Felix, Williams 48.9
                W Javelin Andreczyk, Hussong, HuiHui 71.20
                M 4 x 100 Relay US, Japan, GB 37.2
                W Marathon Kosgei, Jepchirchir, Chepngetich 2.21.16
                W 4 x 400m Relay US, Jamaica, Poland 3:19.10
                PBs 16
                LoveSprints1
                Senior Member
                Last edited by LoveSprints1; 30-07-21, 00:06.

                Comment

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