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PREDICTION CONTEST - Tokyo 2020NE Olympic Games

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  • philipo
    replied
    Originally posted by LuckySpikes View Post

    I see what you're saying but obviously the lower than expected number of Top 6 GB finishes in these Games has skewed the scores downwards. Even if just Dina had got Top 6 in both her events that would have resulted in a 64 point swing in the Part 1 scores, meaning that many contestants would have a positive score. Given a "usual" Team GB performance you wouldn't be doing as well as the best predictor if you forgot to post your Part 1 predictions.

    Anyway, at the end of the contest I'll be looking at the points differential between the best and worst scores for each of the 3 parts to see where the scoring needs tweaking for future contests. So far, it seems like I've weighted the scoring for Parts 2 & 3 well but for Part 1 a lower number of points to be won or lost might be better (msaybe 8 or 10 instead of 16?)
    Surely agree on that.

    Leave a comment:


  • LuckySpikes
    commented on 's reply
    Yes, the Mixed Relay is included.

    I haven't been counting, especially since I saw the lead that Walsh7 has built up!

  • carterhatch
    replied
    By the way, just in case I need the tie breaker, (laughs his socks off) what do people make the total for Team GB PBs ... I keep getting 12 (including the mixed relay If it is indeed included) and interestingly, only one is by a male athlete (Jake Heyward 1500)!

    Leave a comment:


  • Taffy2
    replied
    Thanks for doing the contest.

    Leave a comment:


  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    Originally posted by MysteryBrick View Post
    Just a suggestion, LuckySpikes - I think the penalty for an incorrect top 6 should slightly lower than for a correct top 6. Ideally, you'd see some people with positive and some with negative scores for Part 1. As it is, someone forgetting to enter it would be doing as well as the best predictor...
    I see what you're saying but obviously the lower than expected number of Top 6 GB finishes in these Games has skewed the scores downwards. Even if just Dina had got Top 6 in both her events that would have resulted in a 64 point swing in the Part 1 scores, meaning that many contestants would have a positive score. Given a "usual" Team GB performance you wouldn't be doing as well as the best predictor if you forgot to post your Part 1 predictions.

    Anyway, at the end of the contest I'll be looking at the points differential between the best and worst scores for each of the 3 parts to see where the scoring needs tweaking for future contests. So far, it seems like I've weighted the scoring for Parts 2 & 3 well but for Part 1 a lower number of points to be won or lost might be better (maybe 8 or 10 instead of 16?)

    Leave a comment:


  • marra
    commented on 's reply
    I thought about that point the other day and I would agree..

    Still, thank you for all the work you do anyway Lucky! Very much appreciated!

  • LuckySpikes
    commented on 's reply
    Yes, I noticed that you're leading the combined Part 2 & 3 scores!

  • MysteryBrick
    replied
    Just a suggestion, LuckySpikes - I think the penalty for an incorrect top 6 should slightly lower than for a correct top 6. Ideally, you'd see some people with positive and some with negative scores for Part 1. As it is, someone forgetting to enter it would be doing as well as the best predictor...

    Leave a comment:


  • marra
    replied
    So I'd be winning if I wasn't so damn patriotic. 🤣

    Leave a comment:


  • MysteryBrick
    commented on 's reply
    Let down by my flag waving predilection... but glad the predictions are actually going well...

  • carterhatch
    replied
    Thank you for the 'mention in dispatches'. My optimism bias, in terms of Team GB top six, has really done for me, though I note no one has taken up my offer of a signed 'selfie' of a flag waving Carterhatch, using a wooden spoon to eat humble pie, and available to all contestants on request ..

    anyway, I really appreciate all your hard work Luckyspikes.

    Leave a comment:


  • Occasional Hope
    replied
    My best day, but too little too late.

    Leave a comment:


  • LuckySpikes
    commented on 's reply
    Scores for Days 7 (highest to lowest):

    MysteryBrick ... + 16 + 32 + 22 = 70
    oxfan ... + 16 + 14 + 24 = 54
    Occasional Hope ... + 16 + 24 + 10 = 50
    philipo ... + 16 + 18 + 15 = 49
    MBChristie ... + 16 + 14 + 16 = 46
    Taffy2 ... + 0 + 24 + 22 = 46
    Ladyloz ... + 16 + 24 + 5 = 45
    Walsh7 ... + 16 + 16 + 13 = 45
    JamieSLA ... + 0 + 16 + 28 = 44
    Jogger ... + 0 + 16 + 28 = 44
    Laps ... + 0 + 18 + 24 = 42
    marra ... + 0 + 18 + 24 = 42
    carterhatch ... - 16 + 16 + 36 = 36
    Sovietvest ... + 0 + 16 + 18 = 34
    Jnathletics ... - 16 + 20 + 29 = 33
    LuckySpikes ... - 16 + 20 + 22 = 26
    LoveSprints1 ... - 16 + 14 + 22 = 20

  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    Contest standings after day 7

    Eighteen of our 24 Part 2 & 3 events are complete.

    You may have been wondering if it was worth doing another score update just one day after the last but, as you'll see from the Day 7 scores posted in the comments, it was quite a high scoring day for some.

    OK, onto those updated scores. As usual, the 3 numbers before your total represent, in order, your Part 1, 2 & 3 scores.

    1 Walsh7 ... + 0 + 116 + 112 = 228
    2 philipo ... - 48 + 110 + 109 = 171
    3 LuckySpikes ... - 48 + 108 + 107 = 167
    4= Laps ... - 48 + 92 + 113 = 157
    4= MBChristie ... - 32 + 96 + 93 = 157
    6 Sovietvest ... - 32 + 94 + 86 = 148
    7 Ladyloz ... - 48 + 108 + 86 = 146
    8 marra ... - 96 + 104 + 126 = 134
    9 MysteryBrick ... - 80 + 106 + 107 = 133
    10 Jogger ... - 64 + 106 + 88 = 130
    11 JamieSLA ... - 96 + 92 + 122 = 118
    12 oxfan ... - 32 + 72 + 75 = 115 (you still have some Part 2 & Part 3 points to be added at the end, as per post #67)
    13 LoveSprints1 ... - 80 + 98 + 96 = 114
    14 Taffy2 ... - 80 + 108 + 72 = 102 (you still have some Part 3 points to be added at the end, as per post #70)
    15 Occasional Hope ... - 64 + 84 + 77 = 97
    16 Jnathletics ... - 96 + 84 + 91 = 79
    17 carterhatch ... - 128 + 76 + 107 = 55

    The clear advantage I had yesterday in 2nd place has foundered on the twin rocks of KJT & Pozzi.

    It was a big day for MysteryBrick , helped by very strong medalist predictions:
    M 400: Norman, Zambrano, James (8 pts)
    W PV: Nageotte, Sidorova, Bradshaw (max 14 pts - only Taffy2 matched that)
    M Dec: Warner, Mayer, LePage (10 pts)

    Also, notable was carterhatch scoring 12 points on each of the Part 3 predictions:
    M 400: 43.95 (vs 43.85)
    W PV: 4.91 (vs 4.90)
    M Dec: 9021 (vs 9018)

    OK, there will be no more score updates until the final scores after Day 10. There's only one event that day but a couple of contestants have picked Callum Hawkins for a Top 6 finish.

    Leave a comment:


  • carterhatch
    commented on 's reply
    One signed 'selfie' of a flag waving Carterhatch, using wooden spoon to eat humble pie, available to all entrants on request
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