Tweet
PREDICTION CONTEST - Tokyo 2020NE Olympic Games
OK, are you ready for the big one?!
Please note below the requested format for posting your entry - it really does help me zip through tallying the scores if the info is in the same order for all contestants.
The event entries are listed at https://www.worldathletics.org/compe...32391/athletes You can check athlete's profiles by clicking on their name and then clicking "Athlete Profile" bottom right. Alternatively, you can do that via the WA Toplists which I have linked in the comments. I have also linked there to the collection of WA event-by-event previews.
I have reserved post #2 below for listing any significant Withdrawals. If anyone spots any, please post the info in this thread. I will also endeavour to keep an eye open. Please check this list and, if necessary, amend your contest entry before submitting it.
If you need any clarification on anything, please ask away!
Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH TOP 6 FINISHES
Predict which British athletes you think will finish in the Top 6.
Because some athletes are doubling, please specify which event you think they will finish Top 6 in.
For the relay teams, you don't need to name the individual athletes, you just need to say "Great Britain" if you think they will finish Top 6.
For context here are the number of GB Top 6 finishes in the last 5 Olympics:
2000 - 18
2004 - 13
2008 - 14
2012 - 15
2016 - 17
Scoring
Remember there is some jeopardy involved, so while you will score 16 points for each correct prediction, you will also lose 16 points for each incorrect prediction.
Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for each of the 24 events below.
You will see I have requested a little more for those events where Miller-Uibo & Hassan have yet to decide and for the events where 4 Ethiopians are still listed on the entries. It's messy but unavoidable at present.
The events are listed in the order they will be completed. I have attempted to pick the most open events. I know the medalists in the Men's 400 Hurdles aren't particularly open but I think it very interesting for the Warholm/Benjamin battle and also for the Part 3 Winning Mark (remember, we expected a super-fast time in the Doha 2019 final but didn't get it).
M 10,000 - Please predict the first 4
M Discus
M High Jump
M 100
W 100 Hurdles
M Long Jump
W Discus
W 5000 - Please predict the first 5 (Hassan AND Ethiopia causing issues here!)
W Long Jump
M 400 Hurdles
W 800
W 200 - Please predict the first 4
W 3000 Steeplechase - If an Ethiopian is amongst your medalists, please predict the first 4
M 800
M Hammer
M 400
W Pole Vault
M Decathlon
M 5000 - Please predict the first 4
W 400 - Please predict the first 4
W Javelin
M 4 x 100 Relay
W Marathon - Please predict the first 4
W 4 x 400m Relay
Scoring
6 points - Correct gold medal prediction
4 points - Correct silver medal prediction
4 points - Correct bronze medal prediction
2 points - any medalist predicted as medalling but not in the correct podium position
So, for each event there is a maximum of 14 points available.
Part 3 - PREDICT THE WINNING MARKS
Predict the winning mark for each of the 24 events above.
Scoring
This will be done on a percentage basis ...
There are 16 points available for each event.
For track events & marathon ...
5 points scored if you are within 1% but greater than 0.5% either side of the winning mark
8 points if you are within 0.5% but greater than 0.25% away
12 points if you are within 0.25% away but not exactly correct
16 points for an exact prediction
For field events & combined events ...
Scoring is the same but the percentages you can be within are doubled so 5 points = 2% to 1% away; 8 points = 1% to 0.5%; 12 points = within 0.5%; 16 points = exact prediction
Some examples ...
If the Women's 800 is won in 2:00.00 scoring would be as follows:
5 points for a prediction in the 1:58.80 to 1:59.41 range or in the 2:00.61 to 2:01.20 range
8 points for a prediction in the 1:59.40 to 1:59.69 range or in the 2:00.31 to 2:00.60 range
12 points for a prediction in the 1:59.70 to 1:59.99 range or in the 2:00.01 to 2:00.30 range
16 points for 2:00.00 !
If the Men's Long Jump is won in 8.00 scoring would be as follows:
5 points for a prediction in the 8.09 to 8.16 range or in the 7.84 to 7.91 range
8 points for a prediction in the 8.05 to 8.08 range or in the 7.92 to 7.95 range
12 points for a prediction in the 8.01 to 8.04 range or in the 7.96 to 7.99 range
16 points for 8.00 !
TIEBREAKER
Predict the number of British athletes who leave the Games with a PB.
If say Dina PBs in the 100 and 200 that counts as 2 PBs. However, if she PBs twice in the 100 that counts as only 1 PB. If a NR is broken in the relays that counts as 1 PB. In the Heptathlon PBs in individual events do not count, only a final score PB counts.
The tiebreaker will only be used, if necessary, to determine our Gold Medal winner.
FORMAT OF YOUR ENTRY
For Part 1, please post all your Women's British Top 6 picks first and then your Men's, and put them in some sort of conventional event order.
For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line, e.g.,
W 800: Reekie, Hodgkinson, Bell 1:53.27
...
Please check that for Parts 2 & 3 you have predicted all 24 events.
If any athletes in an event share a surname, please be clear about which athlete you are choosing.
CLOSING TIME FOR ENTRIES & EDITING YOUR ENTRY
The closing time for your entry is 12.50am (ie, early morning) UK time on Friday 30th July - that's 10 minutes before the first event starts. Up to that point you can edit your team as many times as you wish - please do so by editing your original post if you know how to. That helps me enormously. Edits can not be made after the closing time.
Note: If editing more than once, err on the side of caution and leave at least an hour between edits to avoid the forum software flagging your post "Unapproved".
OTHER INFO
If any of your Part 1 predictions is a DNS in your specified event you will not be deducted points for that athlete's failure to finish Top 6.
Interim contest scores will be provided after:
- Day 4 (8 of our 24 events completed)
- Day 6 (14 of our 24 events completed)
- Day 7 (18 of our 24 events completed)
Due to the inconvenient UK viewing times, please be patient waiting for these to be posted - I want to watch the events first before calculating scores and I may not be able to watch them live!
I do double-check the scoring but if you think I've still made an error, please do not hesitate to query it.
FORM GUIDE?
At our most recent Prediction Contest, the 2021 European Indoors, Laps was a clear winner. Occasional Hope took the Silver medal, one point ahead of LuckySpikes who was 3 points ahead of the 4th placers.
Right, that's enough gabbing from me! Good luck, everyone!
Please note below the requested format for posting your entry - it really does help me zip through tallying the scores if the info is in the same order for all contestants.
The event entries are listed at https://www.worldathletics.org/compe...32391/athletes You can check athlete's profiles by clicking on their name and then clicking "Athlete Profile" bottom right. Alternatively, you can do that via the WA Toplists which I have linked in the comments. I have also linked there to the collection of WA event-by-event previews.
I have reserved post #2 below for listing any significant Withdrawals. If anyone spots any, please post the info in this thread. I will also endeavour to keep an eye open. Please check this list and, if necessary, amend your contest entry before submitting it.
If you need any clarification on anything, please ask away!
Part 1 - PREDICT THE BRITISH TOP 6 FINISHES
Predict which British athletes you think will finish in the Top 6.
Because some athletes are doubling, please specify which event you think they will finish Top 6 in.
For the relay teams, you don't need to name the individual athletes, you just need to say "Great Britain" if you think they will finish Top 6.
For context here are the number of GB Top 6 finishes in the last 5 Olympics:
2000 - 18
2004 - 13
2008 - 14
2012 - 15
2016 - 17
Scoring
Remember there is some jeopardy involved, so while you will score 16 points for each correct prediction, you will also lose 16 points for each incorrect prediction.
Part 2 - PREDICT THE MEDALISTS
Predict the 1-2-3 finishing order for each of the 24 events below.
You will see I have requested a little more for those events where Miller-Uibo & Hassan have yet to decide and for the events where 4 Ethiopians are still listed on the entries. It's messy but unavoidable at present.
The events are listed in the order they will be completed. I have attempted to pick the most open events. I know the medalists in the Men's 400 Hurdles aren't particularly open but I think it very interesting for the Warholm/Benjamin battle and also for the Part 3 Winning Mark (remember, we expected a super-fast time in the Doha 2019 final but didn't get it).
M 10,000 - Please predict the first 4
M Discus
M High Jump
M 100
W 100 Hurdles
M Long Jump
W Discus
W 5000 - Please predict the first 5 (Hassan AND Ethiopia causing issues here!)
W Long Jump
M 400 Hurdles
W 800
W 200 - Please predict the first 4
W 3000 Steeplechase - If an Ethiopian is amongst your medalists, please predict the first 4
M 800
M Hammer
M 400
W Pole Vault
M Decathlon
M 5000 - Please predict the first 4
W 400 - Please predict the first 4
W Javelin
M 4 x 100 Relay
W Marathon - Please predict the first 4
W 4 x 400m Relay
Scoring
6 points - Correct gold medal prediction
4 points - Correct silver medal prediction
4 points - Correct bronze medal prediction
2 points - any medalist predicted as medalling but not in the correct podium position
So, for each event there is a maximum of 14 points available.
Part 3 - PREDICT THE WINNING MARKS
Predict the winning mark for each of the 24 events above.
Scoring
This will be done on a percentage basis ...
There are 16 points available for each event.
For track events & marathon ...
5 points scored if you are within 1% but greater than 0.5% either side of the winning mark
8 points if you are within 0.5% but greater than 0.25% away
12 points if you are within 0.25% away but not exactly correct
16 points for an exact prediction
For field events & combined events ...
Scoring is the same but the percentages you can be within are doubled so 5 points = 2% to 1% away; 8 points = 1% to 0.5%; 12 points = within 0.5%; 16 points = exact prediction
Some examples ...
If the Women's 800 is won in 2:00.00 scoring would be as follows:
5 points for a prediction in the 1:58.80 to 1:59.41 range or in the 2:00.61 to 2:01.20 range
8 points for a prediction in the 1:59.40 to 1:59.69 range or in the 2:00.31 to 2:00.60 range
12 points for a prediction in the 1:59.70 to 1:59.99 range or in the 2:00.01 to 2:00.30 range
16 points for 2:00.00 !
If the Men's Long Jump is won in 8.00 scoring would be as follows:
5 points for a prediction in the 8.09 to 8.16 range or in the 7.84 to 7.91 range
8 points for a prediction in the 8.05 to 8.08 range or in the 7.92 to 7.95 range
12 points for a prediction in the 8.01 to 8.04 range or in the 7.96 to 7.99 range
16 points for 8.00 !
TIEBREAKER
Predict the number of British athletes who leave the Games with a PB.
If say Dina PBs in the 100 and 200 that counts as 2 PBs. However, if she PBs twice in the 100 that counts as only 1 PB. If a NR is broken in the relays that counts as 1 PB. In the Heptathlon PBs in individual events do not count, only a final score PB counts.
The tiebreaker will only be used, if necessary, to determine our Gold Medal winner.
FORMAT OF YOUR ENTRY
For Part 1, please post all your Women's British Top 6 picks first and then your Men's, and put them in some sort of conventional event order.
For Parts 2 & 3, please a) use the same order of events that I've posted above and b) combine your Part 2 & 3 predictions in one line, e.g.,
W 800: Reekie, Hodgkinson, Bell 1:53.27
...
Please check that for Parts 2 & 3 you have predicted all 24 events.
If any athletes in an event share a surname, please be clear about which athlete you are choosing.
CLOSING TIME FOR ENTRIES & EDITING YOUR ENTRY
The closing time for your entry is 12.50am (ie, early morning) UK time on Friday 30th July - that's 10 minutes before the first event starts. Up to that point you can edit your team as many times as you wish - please do so by editing your original post if you know how to. That helps me enormously. Edits can not be made after the closing time.
Note: If editing more than once, err on the side of caution and leave at least an hour between edits to avoid the forum software flagging your post "Unapproved".
OTHER INFO
If any of your Part 1 predictions is a DNS in your specified event you will not be deducted points for that athlete's failure to finish Top 6.
Interim contest scores will be provided after:
- Day 4 (8 of our 24 events completed)
- Day 6 (14 of our 24 events completed)
- Day 7 (18 of our 24 events completed)
Due to the inconvenient UK viewing times, please be patient waiting for these to be posted - I want to watch the events first before calculating scores and I may not be able to watch them live!
I do double-check the scoring but if you think I've still made an error, please do not hesitate to query it.
FORM GUIDE?
At our most recent Prediction Contest, the 2021 European Indoors, Laps was a clear winner. Occasional Hope took the Silver medal, one point ahead of LuckySpikes who was 3 points ahead of the 4th placers.
Right, that's enough gabbing from me! Good luck, everyone!
! Please let me know if I have made any errors in entries, such as athletes who aren't competing (not in predictions, you disagree with). Thank you for organising
Comment