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**alfie** · 25-07-21, 04:37

Ah well - while I will never be as pessimistic as you , Philipo (would be near impossible !) I also had a lot of reservations about the rather bullish predictions for GB pool success. I do think the team overall is one of the stronger ones sent ; but apart from Peaty who has been a standout for years the other chances are all a bit speculative - and dependent on swimming at or probably better than their previous best. (Not to say the likes of Scott , for example , won't do so later in the meet) So no guarantees.
Wouldn't be too disappointed with these results . Litchfield a bit unfortunate to be fourth again ; but still a good performance. Wilmott will be disappointed she couldn't back up her heat swim though. And I agree Hopkin and Wood will be worth watching after their relay efforts.

Australia awesome in that relay : expected , of course. But done as a favourite should - and as a few haven't so far. And great to see a young Tunisian getting a rare gold for his nation in the unlikely setting of a swimming pool !

**marra** · 25-07-21, 04:50

If we're talking genuinely disappointing British results, I think Jade Jones losing in the first round probably 'wins' that particular conversation. That's much more worrying for our overall medal chances.

**alfie** · 25-07-21, 05:00

Originally posted by marra

If we're talking genuinely disappointing British results, I think Jade Jones losing in the first round probably 'wins' that particular conversation. That's much more worrying for our overall medal chances.

Yeah that was a real shock to everyone I think. Always hate the way the media hang medals round peoples' necks in advance - seems to invite fate ! But for her to fall at the first really is up there for shock of the games.
Ash Barty has gone out first round in the tennis so it ain't just GB favourites falling...

I wouldn't be fretting too much over medal chances on day two of a fortnight...one or two events when you are hoping for 30/40/50 depending on your level of optimism is neither here nor there.

**alfie** · 25-07-21, 05:11

And I note that the woman who put Jones out was actually the bronze medallist from Rio so she's no mug... Had a previous win over Jones , too. Unlucky they met in round one , I guess, due to her being a refugee who hasn't competed for some years.

**marra** · 25-07-21, 06:04

Originally posted by alfie

And I note that the woman who put Jones out was actually the bronze medallist from Rio so she's no mug... Had a previous win over Jones , too. Unlucky they met in round one , I guess, due to her being a refugee who hasn't competed for some years.

Yeah, I was just reading about that as well. Makes it more understandable a defeat.

Should mention that my disappointment was for Jones, not in her. Utmost respect for all the athletes, GB or not, who are competing in these games, especially given the whole pandemic thing! This always promised to be one of the more unpredictable Games we've had.

Fair to say Bradly Sinden had a more comfortable introduction to the Games 🤣

**philipo** · 25-07-21, 07:24

Originally posted by marra

If we're talking genuinely disappointing British results, I think Jade Jones losing in the first round probably 'wins' that particular conversation. That's much more worrying for our overall medal chances.

i believe if it is permitted to say so here, that we will win only about 8 to 10 gold medals and far fewer medals than the last two OG overall; the golden years are over for now. Thats not pessimism its based on what I see around the world and that a great sack of cycling and rowing medals are not going to happen at the moment. Its not just me that views it so,; in Spring this year a data sports company who predict Olympic medals etc, based on performances in world champs etc, stated GB would finish in Tenth place on the Medals table and get far fewer than Rio or London.
That's realism for me.

**philipo** · 25-07-21, 07:35

reference the live coverage of last nights swimming i thought that Adlington and Foster were amateurish, trite, self amused and of course Peaty obsessed .Is there anybody that could do a better job;??
I recall at the Brit swimming trials a really excellent female helper on commentaries( a brit coach i think) and also an interviewer were excellent far better than the superannuated and vastly overrated Jameson, who considers himself very funny..
Heigh, you know the BBC; once you get your arse in the chair, you are there forever.Like Colin Jackson, to name but one.
By the way everything i have heard in commentary is way overblown even the knowledgeable gymnastic British commentators are way too nationalistic;
I do not need my cheering on of our sportspeople to be done by presenters and commentators; that's my view anyway.

**philipo** · 25-07-21, 07:53

Originally posted by marra

Re the relay - whilst they might be slightly disappointed, it's important to recognise the context and measure of how far they have come. We broke the British record again. Let's not forget that we've not even entered a team at Olympics or Worlds since 2012! To go from that to 5th here is something to absolutely be proud of and all of that team can realistically look to Paris.

I didn't have us medalling in any of the 4 events tonight, so I'm not remotely worried about our chances. 5th was what I expected, at best, from that relay, 4th from Litchfield was better than I expected. Wilmott is maybe the only slight disappointment but certainly not a shock.

We might not get the hatful of medals but judging it based on these swims, as I said in my last post, is not the way to prove that.

Fabulous swimming from the Aussie 4x1 women. They were always the class and always a decent shot to break the world record. Have to say that the Tunisian fella winning the 400m free will probably go down as one of THE shocks of the entire Games. Fair play to him.

Marra, you will note that i stated earlier we will do well to get more than 4 medals in the swimming, possibly 6 if our 200m man is on song; I, like a lot of fans, thought we sent some excellent young female swimmers, to the Games, but so did all the top swimming nations; that is my view , reinforced by what we have seen in the first few events
,Medal expectations can be very silly especially with morning finals.
Our British trials did not take advantage (similar to other countries) of practising morning finals and only the Yanks could justify full 3 race finals in many events. Most of all i am not sure that we travel always so well in swimming.
The World Champs are not the Olympic Games.
Its early days this week and also we have Paris in 3 years time and World Champs in between. Experience is not necessary anything to do with performing well; every Olympics youngsters come from nowhere and win medals; you are seeing it already.
Still, lots to look forward to this week.

**philipo** · 25-07-21, 07:57

Originally posted by alfie

Ah well - while I will never be as pessimistic as you , Philipo (would be near impossible !) I also had a lot of reservations about the rather bullish predictions for GB pool success. I do think the team overall is one of the stronger ones sent ; but apart from Peaty who has been a standout for years the other chances are all a bit speculative - and dependent on swimming at or probably better than their previous best. (Not to say the likes of Scott , for example , won't do so later in the meet) So no guarantees.
Wouldn't be too disappointed with these results . Litchfield a bit unfortunate to be fourth again ; but still a good performance. Wilmott will be disappointed she couldn't back up her heat swim though. And I agree Hopkin and Wood will be worth watching after their relay efforts.

Australia awesome in that relay : expected , of course. But done as a favourite should - and as a few haven't so far. And great to see a young Tunisian getting a rare gold for his nation in the unlikely setting of a swimming pool !

I agree with you post, Alfie

**trickstat** · 25-07-21, 09:12

It's worth pointing out that the GB medal haul at Rio was exceptional as host nations' medal 'bounces' tend not to be sustained at the next Games.

**trickstat** · 25-07-21, 09:20

Originally posted by philipo

Marra, you will note that i stated earlier we will do well to get more than 4 medals in the swimming, possibly 6 if our 200m man is on song; I, like a lot of fans, thought we sent some excellent young female swimmers, to the Games, but so did all the top swimming nations; that is my view , reinforced by what we have seen in the first few events
,Medal expectations can be very silly especially with morning finals.
Our British trials did not take advantage (similar to other countries) of practising morning finals and only the Yanks could justify full 3 race finals in many events. Most of all i am not sure that we travel always so well in swimming.
The World Champs are not the Olympic Games.
Its early days this week and also we have Paris in 3 years time and World Champs in between. Experience is not necessary anything to do with performing well; every Olympics youngsters come from nowhere and win medals; you are seeing it already.
Still, lots to look forward to this week.

My gut feeling is that swimming sees more golds won by first-time Olympians than most other sports.

**RunUnlimited** · 25-07-21, 09:55

Brilliant for Bradley Sinden.... And GB are guaranteed a medal in the Taekwondo.

**RunUnlimited** · 25-07-21, 10:05

Originally posted by trickstat

It's worth pointing out that the GB medal haul at Rio was exceptional as host nations' medal 'bounces' tend not to be sustained at the next Games.

Indeed, Great Britain in Rio 2016 became the first nation in the history of the modern Olympic Games that managed to surpass the medal total in the games immediately following one that they had previously hosted. Olympic juggernauts like the USA and USSR have managed that (though the big Cold War Olympic boycotts in 1980 and 1984 probably skew those results somewhat).

**marra** · 25-07-21, 10:20

Well, we have our first guaranteed medal - Bradly Sinden gets either a silver or gold, with the final in around 3 hours time I think.

As for other comments it's worth noting that most of the predictions before 2016 were that GB's medal tally would be around 50. We came away with 67. So let's not place too much faith in 'professional' data predictions. Most of their predictions are based on the same data that we can all read on wikipedia (ie past results) and even then is not flawless - I saw one of them last week announcing that Britain would get a bronze in the Women's 4x200m freestyle, which would be a shock considering that we decided not to enter a team for that event!

As for our promising women's swimmers - they are indeed promising, but they are also not where the majority of the medal predictions for GB have come.

If you look at the world best times this year coming into the games, our swimmers ranked in the top 3 of those competing were as follows:

Women - Wood (200IM), Renshaw (200BR).

Men - Peaty, Greenbank (200BK), Scott (200FR/200IM), Dean (200FR), Proud (50FR).

Times in relays are less of a guide given the potential for people to be dropped in, but none of the women's relays was strongly favoured for a medal. 2 of the 3 men's are - 4x200FR, 4x100m Medley.

If you look at those events, not only are our men reckoned to be by far the more successful this time out, but also, as I've been saying, most of those events are yet to be raced.

Also, we did morning finals at the Glasgow meet, which was the final meet we had before the Games and I know from social media that a lot of the swimming groups have been training for a good while on Tokyo time.

To be clear - I'm not promising we'll medal in them all. That is unlikely. But predicting that we won't, based on events we weren't expected to medal in anyway, seems no more likely to be accurate. It's all guesswork, optimistic or pessimistic.

**Occasional Hope** · 25-07-21, 10:44

First medal for Team GB courtesy of Chelsie Giles.

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