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FEEDBACK NEEDED re specifics of our Olympic Prediction Contest

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  • FEEDBACK NEEDED re specifics of our Olympic Prediction Contest

    I need your feedback on some specifics of the format for the Olympic Prediction Contest. So, read on and then I'd be grateful if you could answer the two quick questions at the end ...

    I've decided the contest will have 3 parts to it ...

    Part 1
    For most (all?) of our previous contests this has been "Predict the British medalists" but, given that British medals may be very thin on the ground in Tokyo, I think that "Predict which British athletes will finish in the Top 6" would be better.

    Now, I know most athletes don't go to the Olympics thinking "I want to finish in the top 6" but for our contest I think it would produce more varied predictions and thus be more interesting to follow for all contestants. Also, the greater number of points available to win (or lose!) for "Predict British Top 6" would help maintain the importance of this part of the contest to your final score.

    Part 2
    If you remember, for the 2019 Doha contest we predicted the 1-2-3's for 24 of the events. I propose to do that again for the Olympics (given its importance) but my question is ... should we predict the 1-2-3's for all 48 events or just for 24 events (which I would select from across the discipline groups (not race walking though!), also trying to pick the events that are more open.)
    My worry is that doing it for all 48 events might be off-putting for some contestants in terms of the time you'd have to invest?

    Part 3 will be predicting winning marks for all the events we predict in Part 2, so either 24 or 48 winning mark predictions. People seemed to like this element when I introduced it for the 2021 Euro Indoors contest. If you're curious how this is scored, there is a sliding scale of points depending on how close you get in percentage terms. For further explanation, see the 2021 Euro Indoors Prediction Contest thread at https://forum.athleticsweekly.com/fo...-championships

    So, my questions are ...
    a) Regarding Part 1 - Respond "Top 3" if you think we should predict British medalists only or respond "Top 6" if you think we should predict British Top 6 finishers. EDIT : See also post #3 for an alternative option suggested by MysteryBrick
    b) Regarding Parts 2 & 3 - Respond "24 events" or "48 events" depending on how many 1-2-3's and winning marks you think we should predict

    As long as there's more than just a couple of responses, I'll go with the majority votes. If the votes are tied I have the casting vote. I'll leave the vote open until 11.59pm on Wednesday 21st July to allow time for less frequent visitors to the forum.

    Thanks in advance!
    Last edited by LuckySpikes; 12-07-21, 13:24.

  • #2
    For Part 1 - can we go top 8, as that has more relation with the actual composition of events?

    For Part 2 - 24 events. 48 is a lot...

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by MysteryBrick View Post
      For Part 1 - can we go top 8, as that has more relation with the actual composition of events?

      For Part 2 - 24 events. 48 is a lot...
      Hmm, I wonder if that might make it too "easy"? With "Predict Top 6 finishers" I think there's that element of, "Well, I'm confident they can make the final but will they be there just to make up the numbers or will they have a good shot at placing well?"

      But, let's see what others think ... Vote for "Top 8" if you agree with MysteryBrick or vote "Top 3" or "Top 6" otherwise.

      Comment


      • LuckySpikes
        LuckySpikes commented
        Editing a comment
        Some data that may or may not be helpful ...

        British Top 6 finishers / Top 8 finishers
        2016 - 17 / 22
        2012 - 15 / 23
        2008 - 14 / 18

    • #4
      Part - 1 I agree with MysteryBrick - top 8. (number of PBs by Brits would make a nice tie breaker)

      Part - 2 24 events - I have never been so interested in certain field results in my life!

      Thanking you in advance, LuckySpikes, for doing this.

      Comment


      • #5
        Top 6 or top 8 either or

        And let's do 48 events. Put the work in people, after all the generous cash prize on offer demands it. 😁

        Comment


        • LuckySpikes
          LuckySpikes commented
          Editing a comment
          It's kind of you to offer to sponsor the contest!

      • #6
        Top 6 Brits
        48 events
        Thanks LuckySpikes!

        Comment


        • #7
          Top 6 Brits & 24 events - as a relative newbie I'm not confident on my ability to go much further!

          Comment


          • #8
            Many thanks for doing this again Lucky.

            I find the contest addictive. Made more so by the jeopardy element of losing points if things go against you. Which they are very likely to do sometimes.
            Top 6 prolongs the jeopardy into the finals themselves in many events, rather than settling the points at the semi-finals stage.
            Top 8 is a more obvious choice and my immediate reaction was to go for that but on thinking about it your Top 6 is better because it will sustain more interest into more finals.
            As you say Top 3s will probably be thin on the ground and most of us will make the same cagey predictions.

            24 is good. I would not thank you for having to wade through 48 events. But as Carterhatch says "I have never been so interested in certain field results in my life!"
            I thought with the last contest there was a danger of putting some people off with the complexity but we got a good number of entries in the end.

            Could the sponsorship be backdated please.

            Comment


            • #9
              I think Top 8 Brits is about right;seems logical for 8 finalists in many track events and final 8 get the extra efforts in field events.
              I am happy with 48 events, but i understand that will be time consuming for some. After all, its the OG; I reckon this years will be the toughest ever prediction contest with the Covid problems and travel restrictions..Lets hope nobody gets caught out from positive tests. How do you get 48 events? 4 normal relays plus one mixed relays, plus two male walks and one female walk.That's 48 events ; can't profess much interest in the walks, if we do the full 48 events. Perusal of tilastopaja will be important, perhaps.

              Comment


              • #10
                Goes without saying, many thanks Lucky for taking on the slog.

                Comment


                • #11
                  Does anyone know the date when they publish, through WA, the totality of athletes who will be competing. in each event

                  Comment


                  • MysteryBrick
                    MysteryBrick commented
                    Editing a comment
                    I would guess it must be pretty soon - definitely with more than a weeks notice before the athletics starts, at least.

                • #12
                  I'm fairly relaxed about top 6 or 8.

                  Definitely prefer doing 24 events. And like the idea of picking the more open events

                  Comment


                  • #13
                    Originally posted by Laps View Post
                    Many thanks for doing this again Lucky.

                    Top 6 prolongs the jeopardy into the finals themselves in many events, rather than settling the points at the semi-finals stage.
                    Top 8 is a more obvious choice and my immediate reaction was to go for that but on thinking about it your Top 6 is better because it will sustain more interest into more finals.
                    ...
                    Yes, this is a good point to recommend Top 6 over Top 8. The same applies for field event finals when the top 8 progress to the final 3 rounds. Some Top 6 predictions might be on a knife edge for 3 more rounds.

                    Comment


                    • #14
                      The arguments for top 6 seem strongest.

                      I'd go for 48 events for medallists' order but 24 for winning marks

                      Comment


                      • MysteryBrick
                        MysteryBrick commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Yeah, I've come around to Top 6 for the above reasons.

                    • #15
                      Agree with Top 6 for the extra uncertainty principle that people have said.

                      I'd personally do 48 events (I predict every medallist in every sport anyway ) but if more people prefer 24, I'd not be heartbroken.

                      Comment

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