USA Olympic Trials 18th-27th June

[Walsh7]

Predictions for tomorrow?

I think Hoppel will miss out. Brazier first, Murphy second and Harris third.
W1500: 1) Purrier, 2) Hiltz, 3) Sinclaire.
W5000: 1) Cranny, 2) Schweizer, 3) Buchalski

Your W1500 is missing someone. The biggest sleeper in that field is Shannon Osika. She has quietly put together an outstanding 2021 season. She ran a very impressive 4:00 at Mt. Sac in May. Recently, she looked great winning the Nashville race in 2:00. Osika will finish 2nd or 3rd. Also, don't count out Jenny Simpson either! It should be a great Final tonight!!

[LuckySpikes]

Your W1500 is missing someone. The biggest sleeper in that field is Shannon Osika. She has quietly put together an outstanding 2021 season. She ran a very impressive 4:00 at Mt. Sac in May. Recently, she looked great winning the Nashville race in 2:00. Osika will finish 2nd or 3rd. Also, don't count out Jenny Simpson either! It should be a great Final tonight!!

I agree with everything you've said about Osika & Simpson.

Except one thing ... I don't think Osika is a "sleeper". Ever since "Burrito-gate" I've had her down as the 2nd favourite for this.

[LuckySpikes]

Predictions for tomorrow?

I think Hoppel will miss out. Brazier first, Murphy second and Harris third.
W1500: 1) Purrier, 2) Hiltz, 3) Sinclaire.
W5000: 1) Cranny, 2) Schweizer, 3) Buchalski

OK, here goes ...

M 800 - 1 Brazier, 2 Hoppel, 3 Jewett
W 1500 - 1 Purrier, 2 Osika, 3 Simpson; After a rough semi I'm hoping that my dark horse Heather Maclean can do well; Dani Aragon looked very good in the rounds - a big improver this year, maybe she's ready for a big breakthrough?
W 5000 - 1 Cranny, 2 Norris, 3 Schweizer

[LuckySpikes]

What a run by Cory McGee behind Purrier!

And 2 finals down, and 2 third places for my dark horses! Heather Maclean doing the job this time.

[marra]

Oh my word, that 800m was BONKERS.

[LuckySpikes]

What a race - Murphy, Jewett, Hoppel !

Brazier 8th!!

Murphy not far off his PB, 1.43.17 WL. Jewett 1.43.85 PB.

[RunUnlimited]

Brazier flops at the US Olympic Trials for the second time in a row! Murphy with a 1:43.17 WL! Jewett with a 1:43.95 PB! And Hoppel a 1:44.17 SB for the final spot! 800m in Tokyo is gonna be a wild ride folks!

[LuckySpikes]

Yes, good observation. Brazier doesn't like the OTs !

[philipo]

Very few flops. Wonder if we will see 1.43s or 1.44son Sunday next. Hardly.

[MysteryBrick]

If Brazier were English you would be busy stringing him up above your campfire for underperformed.

And will we see a 1:44 at UK champs? Doesn't matter, it's a championship. Timetrial elsewhere.

[RunUnlimited]

Hmm... judging by the standard of the men's triple jump, sans Taylor (who to be honest wasn't looking too great before his unfortunate injury), I think Zango is looking more and more the gold medal favourite for Tokyo... unless Will Claye can find some serious form and jumping distance between now and the Olympics. 17.21m SB to win the US Trials? Not exactly pulling up any trees there.

[RunUnlimited]

MysteryBrick I'm sure Willie Banks, Mike Conley, Kenny Harrison and Christian Taylor would politely disagree with your coach friend's observations.

[MysteryBrick]

RunUnlimited - I'm not talking about the top guys. They have had excellent people. but look at the overall TJ standard in the US vs, for example, LJ:

2021 - 15 in TJ World top 100 vs. 25 in LJ
2018 - 14 in TJ World top 100 vs. 18 in LJ
2016 - 14 in TJ World top 100 vs. 16 in LJ

And at an NCAA level, for example:
2021 - 10th best LJ, 7.99m = 1136 IAAF points vs. 10th best TJ, 16.38, 1099 IAAF points
2018 - 10th best LJ, 8.06m = 1151 IAAF points vs. 10th best TJ, 16.26m, 1086 IAAF points

The general US collegiate pattern (which entirely drives their top level depth) is, events where you can get there through simple coaching of excellent physical specimens, they will excel - see Long Jump, Shot Put. Historically, more technical ones like Triple Jump, Hammer, Javelin, less successful (although they appear to have resolved their hammer situation recently with some seriously good throwers appearing).

4 excellent athletes doesn't mean the event is coached well in a country. I assume you'll otherwise be singing the praises of UK women's javelin, with Sanderson, Whitbread and Sayers...?

[RunUnlimited]

Good stats... A lack of depth papered over by some exceptional (and long careered) athletes can hide a bunch of underlying problems.

[LuckySpikes]

Ah, now 3 out of 4 on my dark horses for top 3. Allie Buchalski 5th in the 5000. Still, it's a way better ratio than I was expecting!

[LuckySpikes]

Brazier flops at the US Olympic Trials for the second time in a row! Murphy with a 1:43.17 WL! Jewett with a 1:43.95 PB! And Hoppel a 1:44.17 SB for the final spot! 800m in Tokyo is gonna be a wild ride folks!

Yes, the 800 is wide open in Tokyo now!

All 3 US guys
Dobek
Korir
Tonatiu Lopez
Ferguson Rotich
Arop ?
Daniel Rowden maybe?

No 800s for Nijel Amos this year. Not that he's been a factor in major champs since 2012.

[Walsh7]

OK, here goes ...

M 800 - 1 Brazier, 2 Hoppel, 3 Jewett
W 1500 - 1 Purrier, 2 Osika, 3 Simpson; After a rough semi I'm hoping that my dark horse Heather Maclean can do well; Dani Aragon looked very good in the rounds - a big improver this year, maybe she's ready for a big breakthrough?
W 5000 - 1 Cranny, 2 Norris, 3 Schweizer

Very nice picks today! I hope you enter the Dutch Olympic prediction contest www.atsta.org! You will do very well!

[SprintRelayFan]

Yes, the 800 is wide open in Tokyo now!

All 3 US guys
Dobek
Korir
Tonatiu Lopez
Ferguson Rotich
Arop ?
Daniel Rowden maybe?

No 800s for Nijel Amos this year. Not that he's been a factor in major champs since 2012.

Would you have Dobek as the favourite? Murphy perhaps?

[LuckySpikes]

Would you have Dobek as the favourite? Murphy perhaps?

Yes, those 2 hard to split at the moment. Maybe there's more improvements to come from Dobek?

Jesus Tonatiu Lopez (MEX) will be in the medals I think. He has a wicked kick.

[Grassmarket]

Hmm... judging by the standard of the men's triple jump, sans Taylor (who to be honest wasn't looking too great before his unfortunate injury), I think Zango is looking more and more the gold medal favourite for Tokyo... unless Will Claye can find some serious form and jumping distance between now and the Olympics. 17.21m SB to win the US Trials? Not exactly pulling up any trees there.

Cutting into that too long debate….Greg Rutherford owed his whole career to US LJers who could put up big distances on the Ostravas & Oslos but couldn’t get out of the 09:00 qualifiers or respond to an 8.20 in the first round. So yeah, a lot of the time they were pretty good sprinters with not much of a technical foundation.