GB&NI at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics

[oxfan]

And if the 10000 looks full think about the marathon:
World Athletics have said (press release 2nd June)
"Both marathons had a target number of 80 athletes, but a larger number of athletes have fulfilled the qualifying criteria and will compete in Sapporo, the host of the Olympic road events. In the men’s field 110 athletes have qualified (maximum three per nation) and in the women’s field 103 have qualified." (my emphasis)

[Occasional Hope]

Well, that's reassuring.

[philipo]

With the National Championships window, I am not sure if there will be any top quality distance races in Europe in the 2nd half of June. I think it's Birmingham or bust. Will be interesting to see what the leading pacemakers will be asked to do there.

there is a lack of races of quality in Europe from second week of June tll the end of the month.

[drobbie]

up and coming youngster pavey in the 5000

[carterhatch]

@Drobbie... do you think she might be making a late attempt at an olympic qualifier noticed Sarah Mcdonald down for the w800 @Watofrd this weekend - the same Sarah Macdonald who almost made the Missing in Inaction list? The trials w800 is going to be tough, but, the w1500 not much less so, even the w5000 is congested! Aren't Weightman and Courtney -Bryant down for Marseille tonight too?

[MysteryBrick]

Weightman and Courtney-Bryant are running in Marseille, and Sarah McDonald has the 1500m Olympic qualifier so I guess this is just her (late) opener.

[Grassmarket]

Britain’s descent back into 70s-style sporting mediocrity begins. From now on funding will be distributed as an entitlement, not as a reward for success.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57438149

[LoveSprints1]

Nicole Yeargin, 400m, ran 50.96s Olympic qualifier at the NCAA Champs in Oregon last night, to top the British rankings this year. She still has the final to go on Saturday so may get faster chasing Athing Mu. Yeargin's PB before this season was 52.76. One to Watch!

[RunUnlimited]

Britain’s descent back into 70s-style sporting mediocrity begins. From now on funding will be distributed as an entitlement, not as a reward for success.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57438149

Hmm, not so sure about that judging from the article you linked. Seems to me that UKA looked at the unique circumstances of the past year and a half and for this Olympics only, have implimented this system. Especially since so many athletes from a plethora of sports have had disrupted build up to these Games that their window for providing qualifying performances has been drastically shortened/altered. If this Tokyo games goes ahead as planned, then come the next Olympics in Paris, I bet you the previous funding system will return.

[MysteryBrick]

I completely agree with that reading, RunUnlimited. This looks to be a one-time thing.

[Grassmarket]

I hope you are right. But there is a large & powerful lobby that has always opposed the whole idea of individual sporting excellence & wants to divert the money to their own pet projects. Unfortunately UK Athletics in particular is one of their strongholds, in contrast to several other leading sports.. This is a big concession to them.

[philipo]

Nicole Yeargin, 400m, ran 50.96s Olympic qualifier at the NCAA Champs in Oregon last night, to top the British rankings this year. She still has the final to go on Saturday so may get faster chasing Athing Mu. Yeargin's PB before this season was 52.76. One to Watch!

Fine improvement but possibly she will be knackered by Saturday night, plus a change of scene etc by the Trials. One to watch for sure.

[Loop-guru]

Looking at some events we have quite a few athletes on the cusp of an invite. Cameron Fillery looks about the most precarious with a ranking of 42 (40 going). I would think Cameron should get the invite as surely at least two are inactive / injured or even retired. Also Rabah Yousif looks a shoo-in for an invite which is sure to displease anyone upset by his relay antics (me included)

[Occasional Hope]

Ooh, that might mean he would have to be included in the relay squad. Hopefully UKA will reject such an invitation...

[LuckySpikes]

Yousif might get an invite but he's nowhere near the 'B' standard that UKA require to be run this year. So, I expect the invite would be rejected.

Has Fillery got the 'B' standard? If not, his invite would probably be turned down as well.

[MysteryBrick]

Fillery not yet at the UK standard, but King now has it.

[Loop-guru]

Here's a full list (1 event at a time and only focusing on the events where we are likley to get an invite) based on the world athletics road to Tokyo rankings. This way of ranking athletes seems deeply flawed (something wrong with the weighting that they give to previous years performances perhaps) and does not seem to take into account the young guns coming through (Charlie Dobson in the 400m springs to mind). I will list the events, standards, rankings, seasons best and personal best to give a full guide to what each respective athlete is up against. In some events it is clear that unless British athletics do a complete u-turn these athletes have no chance. In others it looks mighty close and I expect at least 1 or 2 to get the standard at some point, perhaps at the trials. One thing that strikes me is that UK athletics have invested quite heavily in some athletes with the sole purpose of getting said athletes to compete at the highest level and then when that level is offered to them they turn it down, utter madness.

Men
400MH - 48.91
40 needed 21 have it
26 C Mcallister 49.61 / 49.18
36 J Paul 50.66 / 49.49
50 A Chalmers 49.95 / 49.66
51 D Greene 51.18 / 47.84
Bubbling under
A Knibbs - 49.82
Prediction - 0-1
Chris is starting to regain his form from a couple of years ago, Alistair and Alex could make big strides forward but they don't have much time left. My optimistic prediction of 0-1 allows for a shock at the trials.

Next up Mens 400m - Some say in the doldrums, I say we have turned the corner and there are grounds for optimism.

[Loop-guru]

Men
400M - 45.01 (British standard)
48 required 17 have it
Possibly qualifies as the most idiotic standard of the games and will most likely deprive us of places when the athletes will almost certainly be there anyway competing in the relays.
18 M Hudson-Smith 45.51 / 44.48
31 R Yusif 46.35 / 44.54
54 C Chalmers 45.89 / 45.64
Bubbling under
C Dobson - 45.51
J Brier - 45.84
A Haydock-Wilson - 45.90
Prediction 0-2
Even more optimistic than my 400mh prediction. MHS has the class to run the time but is out of sorts and could run out of time. Rabah has no chance but did run 45.65 last year so expect to see him in the relays (unless common sense prevails). I think Charlie will get it based on his mightily impressive opening time and new pb, looks like there is a lot more to come. I am also optimistic that one or more of Cameron, Joe and Alex will take chunks off their pbs as the season unfolds, unfortunately the trials may come too soon. I am also expecting another 2-3 to go sub 46 based on what I have seen so far. It seems to me that we have the makings of a new 4x400m quartet. Unfortunately we are still funding stalwart athletes who would almost certainly have called it a day in the past and I think there is a bias from the selectors which I think we will also see in the womans 4x400m to include these athletes and then let them run despite in some cases there performances being woeful. Nothing against Martyn Rooney but he is currently ranked 40th in the UK and is still in receipt of lottery funding as a relay runner I believe.

[Ladyloz]

Dobson did indeed run a promising time of 45.51 in April. Then pulled out of the World Relays and we haven't seen him since. I fear your optimism is misplaced, certainly for this year.

[Loop-guru]

Men
110MH - 13.37 (British Standard)
40 required 22 have it
This standard has actually allowed one of our athletes in as the actual standard is 13.32
31 D King - 13.37
42 C Fillery - 13.46
Bubbling under
James Weaver - 13.47
Tade Ojora - 13.57
Joshua Zeller - 13.64
Prediction 2-3
Another event where we seem to have turned a corner. Would be great to see three making the plane and at the worlds in 2019 this would have been the case. The new standards may have made some kind of sense prior to the pandemic but this is no longer the case, if anything standards probably need lowering in many events until some semblance of normality returns. Either Cameron or James could get it if they can find the right race and conditions.

[carterhatch]

An interesting stat - might keep you busy all day! - but are you not including the likes of Pozzi ie athlete with standard already?

[Loop-guru]

Only covering the events where athletes are just shy of the standard trying to give a full piciure not covered by the likely team choices already stated by Mysterybrick. These are a mixture of up and coming and experienced seasoned performers who may or may not get on the plane to Tokyo. Time permitting I will do a few a day.

[philipo]

Men
400M - 45.01 (British standard)
48 required 17 have it
Possibly qualifies as the most idiotic standard of the games and will most likely deprive us of places when the athletes will almost certainly be there anyway competing in the relays.
18 M Hudson-Smith 45.51 / 44.48
31 R Yusif 46.35 / 44.54
54 C Chalmers 45.89 / 45.64
Bubbling under
C Dobson - 45.51
J Brier - 45.84
A Haydock-Wilson - 45.90
Prediction 0-2
Even more optimistic than my 400mh prediction. MHS has the class to run the time but is out of sorts and could run out of time. Rabah has no chance but did run 45.65 last year so expect to see him in the relays (unless common sense prevails). I think Charlie will get it based on his mightily impressive opening time and new pb, looks like there is a lot more to come. I am also optimistic that one or more of Cameron, Joe and Alex will take chunks off their pbs as the season unfolds, unfortunately the trials may come too soon. I am also expecting another 2-3 to go sub 46 based on what I have seen so far. It seems to me that we have the makings of a new 4x400m quartet. Unfortunately we are still funding stalwart athletes who would almost certainly have called it a day in the past and I think there is a bias from the selectors which I think we will also see in the womans 4x400m to include these athletes and then let them run despite in some cases there performances being woeful. Nothing against Martyn Rooney but he is currently ranked 40th in the UK and is still in receipt of lottery funding as a relay runner I believe.

On that note about nobody could disagree: wtf is money being wasted on Rooney.? As for your remarks about Hudson- smith you are having a little joke; his talent came to fruit about 5 or 6 years ago and has withered on the vine. But mostly the idea that Yusif is a paid relay runner is the most comical.

[Loop-guru]

Three years ago MHS ran 44.63 in 2018 so not 5-6 years ago but yes I feel he is a longshot and I am not even sure he has done enough to make my preferred relay quartet though I am pretty sure he will be there injury permitting.

[philipo]

Here's a full list (1 event at a time and only focusing on the events where we are likley to get an invite) based on the world athletics road to Tokyo rankings. This way of ranking athletes seems deeply flawed (something wrong with the weighting that they give to previous years performances perhaps) and does not seem to take into account the young guns coming through (Charlie Dobson in the 400m springs to mind). I will list the events, standards, rankings, seasons best and personal best to give a full guide to what each respective athlete is up against. In some events it is clear that unless British athletics do a complete u-turn these athletes have no chance. In others it looks mighty close and I expect at least 1 or 2 to get the standard at some point, perhaps at the trials. One thing that strikes me is that UK athletics have invested quite heavily in some athletes with the sole purpose of getting said athletes to compete at the highest level and then when that level is offered to them they turn it down, utter madness.

Men
400MH - 48.91
40 needed 21 have it
26 C Mcallister 49.61 / 49.18
36 J Paul 50.66 / 49.49
50 A Chalmers 49.95 / 49.66
51 D Greene 51.18 / 47.84
Bubbling under
A Knibbs - 49.82
Prediction - 0-1
Chris is starting to regain his form from a couple of years ago, Alistair and Alex could make big strides forward but they don't have much time left. My optimistic prediction of 0-1 allows for a shock at the trials.

Next up Mens 400m - Some say in the doldrums, I say we have turned the corner and there are grounds for optimism.

Congrats on writing utter nonsense in just about every sentence. Optimism?? Ignoring the total lack of talent in both 400m and 400m hurdles is not optimism. They are in the hurdles lacking any speed and too ruddy slow and going nowhere fast.

[philipo]

Looking at some events we have quite a few athletes on the cusp of an invite. Cameron Fillery looks about the most precarious with a ranking of 42 (40 going). I would think Cameron should get the invite as surely at least two are inactive / injured or even retired. Also Rabah Yousif looks a shoo-in for an invite which is sure to displease anyone upset by his relay antics (me included)

Yusuf a shoe in...ha ha ha

[RunUnlimited]

On that note about nobody could disagree: wtf is money being wasted on Rooney.? As for your remarks about Hudson- smith you are having a little joke; his talent came to fruit about 5 or 6 years ago and has withered on the vine. But mostly the idea that Yusif is a paid relay runner is the most comical.

I think it's very clear that MHS has the talent to run sub 44 seconds (I'm not kidding here). At the European Championships in 2018, MHS in the semi-finals, if hadn't coasted the last 60m of the race, would have smashed the British record and got very close to a 44 flat time. If he'd stuck to the same race plan in the final, he would have done that for certain. Why he decided to run the final the way that he *actually* did, only he will know, but that was a big opportunity missed there. Ever since then, injuries, poor running discipline and other issues have seen him not reach his potential yet. He still has time but the window is narrowing for him to achieve that.

However on the points regarding Rooney and Yusif: I completely agree. Rooney's best days were behind him after 2015 and his last decent relay run was in 2018. As for Yusif, after that debacle in Poland earlier this month, I want him nowhere near the relay squad again. You've done well in the past, but he's even *more* washed up than Rooney is (and older). It's time for the fresher faces to come in. Hell, if you want a slightly older runner with some experience running the circuit who isn't as green as the likes of Haydok-Wilson, Dobson or Brier, perhaps Efe Okoro would be a good pick? Just run a PB of 46.35 less than an hour from running 50 point in the 400m hurdles in Geneva earlier today.

[trickstat]

Looking at Power of 10, there have been some years where Rooney has run 1.0-1.5 seconds quicker on a relay than his best individual 400. Therefore I could see some logic in keeping him funded if he was running about 46.5 or quicker from blocks but it looks like he might struggle to beat 47.5 at the moment.