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PREDICTION CONTEST - 2021 European Indoor Championships

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  • Occasional Hope
    commented on 's reply
    And realistically, we would expect fewer British medallists at the Olympics/worlds.

  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    Thanks for the replies everyone. It seems that predicting the winning marks was very well received, so that's a keeper!

    Looking at the scores for each of the 3 parts, Part 1 scores were dwarfed a little by the other 2 parts so in the interest of making that as important as Parts 2 & 3 I would, in future, probably raise the scoring for Part 1 to five or six points.

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  • oxfan
    replied
    Just to add my thanks for the event and congratulations to the winners.
    I think that the winning mark predications adds something to the contest and I would like to see it again at some stage.

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  • philipo
    replied
    i certainly endorse the views expressed that the Winning marks play an interesting role in the prognostications and in certain events it is easier to pick a winner than to pick a Winning mark.
    Indoor track with DQs and the infighting that happens is a little more difficult to work out winners and medals, especially this year,
    In a relatively short winter calendar it is worth noting athletes at this years Euros who performed well but did not do anything noteworthy before these Champs.

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  • Occasional Hope
    replied
    It was fun. the wining marks were very hard to guess but as Laps says it really made you think about it.

    I was lucky Swoboda dropped out, and that not many people picked Keely Hodgkinson for gold.

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  • LoveSprints1
    replied
    It was great fun LuckySpikes Thanks so much for taking the time to organise this contest - truly generous. I am already looking forward to the Tokyo version!
    Well done Laps et al.

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  • Jogger
    replied
    I enjoyed it too. Congrats to Lucky and the other medal winners!

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  • philipo
    replied
    Great fun and congrats to Laps on a clear victory; very close competition with only 5 points between 7th place and Silver.
    Lucky a great third day for you and a thousand thanks for doing all the hard work.
    I look forward immensely to the big one in August 2021 when it will be a tough contest and the third part is fun, so I hope you will repeat the contest along similar lines.

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  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    In the process of tallying the scores I really couldn't get a firm sense of who the winner would be. Most people were doing well on two of the parts but then not well on the other part.

    Firstly, the two Honorary Awards go to ...
    • Best British medalist prediction - Occasional Hope and LuckySpikes, the only two contestants to pick Verity Ockenden (3000m)
    • Best Champion predictions - Laps for Maryna Bekh-Romanchuk (Long Jump) AND Oscar Husillos (400m) & LoveSprints1 for Elise Vanderelst (1500m)
    "Part winners"
    • The best British Medalist predictor was LuckySpikes with 7 correct and 1 incorrect.
    • The best Champion predictors were LoveSprints1 and oxfan, both predicting 16 of the 26 champions correctly.
    • The best Winning Mark predictor was Laps and by some distance, 9 points more than anyone else.
    OK, drum roll please! The final scores are in ...

    FINAL RESULTS
    (refer to post #27 just above for the meaning of the numbers)

    GOLD - Laps (+ 15 - 3) + 45 + 44 = 101
    SILVER - Occasional Hope (+ 21 - 6) + 42 + 33 = 90
    BRONZE - LuckySpikes (+ 21 - 3) + 36 + 35 = 89
    =4 Ladyloz (+ 18 - 6) + 42 + 32 = 86
    =4 LoveSprints1 (+ 18 - 15) + 48 + 35 = 86
    =4 oxfan (+ 15 - 3) + 48 + 26 = 86
    7 philipo (+ 12 - 3) + 42 + 34 = 85
    8 Jogger (+ 21 - 6) + 39 + 29 = 83

    So, in the end, a quite dominant victory for Laps. Otherwise, it was very, very close for the minor places.

    Congratulations to Laps and the other medalists!

    Thanks to everyone for playing. I've really enjoyed it again!

    Please let me know what you thought of the new Part 3, Predicting the Winning Marks (the first time we've done that). Do you think that worked well or not? I'll bear all feedback in mind for future contests.

    At the moment, my thought is only to use that for the Indoor Championships and for the Outdoor Championships contests to have 2 parts - 1) Predict the British Medalists and 2) Predict the 1-2-3 for each event (or a selection of events since 48 events is a lot of predicting!) as we did for Doha 2019 and, I think, Berlin 2018.

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  • philipo
    replied
    ooh its getting close!!!. The relays may decide it; Sember quite a surprise, and after the womens hurdles Porter may have a battle on her hands ;

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  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    With 3 of us - Jogger, philipo & myself - exactly predicting Pichardo to win with 17.30, things have tightened up a bit!

    LIVE SCORES after Men's TJ
    Laps 44
    Occasional Hope 44
    philipo 42
    LoveSprints1 39
    LuckySpikes 38
    Jogger 35
    oxfan 34
    Ladyloz 34

    Just to be clear about the COVID-related withdrawal of Poland from the Men's 4x400, I'm not allowing any edits (e.g., adding a medal for the British 4x4 team). It should be thought of as akin to an injury picked up during competition.

    The special circumstances I referred to in post #26 were about a significant withdrawal that was actually announced before the contest closing time but which I/we didn't pick up in time.

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  • philipo
    replied
    i wonder how todays relays will affect the totals bearing in mind that there are two relay races and "the DQ happy" brigade will be out to do their best.!!!

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  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    "HALFWAY" SCORES (after 12 of 26 events completed)

    * Please note that for your British medalist predictions I have scored them only for events that have been completed (to avoid the possibility of double counting tomorrow)

    Let me explain how I've shown your scores below ...

    The numbers are:
    (+ Correct Brit Medals - Incorrect Brit Medals) + Champion Picks + Winning Marks = Total

    1 Laps (+ 3 - 3) + 18 + 21 = 39
    2 Occasional Hope (+ 6 - 3) + 18 + 17 = 38
    3 philipo (+ 3 - 3) + 18 + 17 = 35
    4 LoveSprints1 (+ 3 - 9) + 21 + 19 = 34
    5 LuckySpikes (+ 6 - 3) + 15 + 13 = 31
    6 oxfan (+ 3 - 0) + 18 + 9 = 30
    =7 Jogger (+ 3 - 3) + 15 + 13 = 28
    =7 Ladyloz (+ 3 - 6) + 18 + 13 = 28

    With more than half the events yet to be completed, anyone could still win!

    I will post the final scores as soon as I can after competition ends tomorrow and will include the customary honorary awards for best individual British medalist pick and best individual Champion pick.
    Last edited by LuckySpikes; 06-03-21, 21:52.

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  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    Time's up! No edits allowed, unless authorised by me (in special circumstances regarding a withdrawal).

    Eight contestants in the end, after a slow first couple of days.

    With strong favourites in many events there's a lot of consensus about champions. However, the Women's 8, 15 & 3k are wide open and look set to be one of our key battlegrounds. There's also a fair bit of variance in the British medalists predictions.

    Good luck! Just don't have more than me!

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  • LuckySpikes
    replied
    One hour to get your entry posted!

    No further significant withdrawals to report.

    Leave a comment:

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