Speculation surrounding cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics

[treadwater1]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/j...box=1611249451

A number of news stories have emerged over the last week claiming that the Olympics could be cancelled. But this one coming from a Japanese minister is the most serious. Dick Pound and Thomas Bach have also made counter claims that the Olympics will go ahead and that there is no plan B. The fact that IOC members had to issue those statements suggests the situation is becoming far more concerning for the Japanese government

It’s a very tough situation, the Japanese are in a very difficult place with rising cases and deaths, I hope other options are at least considered, an Olympics with no spectators would be far better than no Olympics at all

[Grassmarket]

Worried that it’s one of those situations where everyone knows that they have to pull the plug but nobody wants their fingerprints on the evidence. 😥

[RunUnlimited]

I'll be very surprised if the Tokyo Olympics isn't delayed for a second time at the very least. Considering that the USA, UK, Brazil, France, Germany and other major nations that would normally send large teams to the games, are currently suffering significant spikes in cases, deaths, new variant mutations and sustained outbreaks of COVID-19.... and that these outbreaks could last into the spring or even *summer* without significant intervention... I just can't see athletes and competitors from those countries being allowed to attend. And would Japan want to risk the possibility of a spike happening from some asymptomatic athlete spreading the virus at the athlete's village and it going out of control?

Yeah, I think we're not going to see the Olympics this year.

[fchd]

Also, a lot of sports still need to hold qualifying competitions.

[LuckySpikes]

I'll be very surprised if the Tokyo Olympics isn't delayed for a second time at the very least. Considering that the USA, UK, Brazil, France, Germany and other major nations that would normally send large teams to the games, are currently suffering significant spikes in cases, deaths, new variant mutations and sustained outbreaks of COVID-19.... and that these outbreaks could last into the spring or even *summer* without significant intervention... I just can't see athletes and competitors from those countries being allowed to attend. And would Japan want to risk the possibility of a spike happening from some asymptomatic athlete spreading the virus at the athlete's village and it going out of control?

Yeah, I think we're not going to see the Olympics this year.

I'm pretty sure that I read a while back someone from the IOC or the LOC said that it wouldn't be postponed a second time. i.e., if it doesn't happen this year it won't happen at all.

[Ursus]

I also don’t think we’ll see an OG this year. And athletes should definitely not be fast tracked for vaccinations.

[gghurdler]

I also don’t think we’ll see an OG this year. And athletes should definitely not be fast tracked for vaccinations.

By the time athletes would need to be be vaccinated- for arguments sake, let’s say May, most of the major nations around the world will have moved on to vaccinating the general population having vaccinated their most vulnerable. Giving vaccines to athletes, support staff, organisers and media wouldn’t be taking something away from the most vulnerable. It’s a different matter for the poorer nations clearly

I’m pleased that the IOC are proceeding with caution, so far I haven’t heard or seen any comment from UEFA about cancellation of this summers European championships, I suspect the attitude in that federation will be “let’s find a way to stage this event safely”.

[Laps]

Yes I am sure you are right. UEFA have in mind to make a final decision on the European Championships in mid-March and are still considering options as to whether the competition, due to start on 11th June, can be held 'safely'. I bought tickets but got refunds as soon it as postponed from 2020 but there were 28 million ticket requests and most of the total 2.5 million tickets sold are awaiting distrbution.

Cancelling the Olympics is not the sort of decision to be taken lightly and the last thing the IOC and Japan need is speculation pushing them into a premature decision. So I assume that most of those behind the speculation (not Pinsent) have their own agendas, mainly political or financial.

[trickstat]

I would have thought it is much more feasible to manage to hold the European Champs with 24 teams from one continent with identically sized squads, even if there are no fans than the Olympics with about 200 teams of various sizes coming from all over the world to do about 20 sports.

I think the current prognosis for the UK is that first jabs for all over 50s, medically vulnerable, NHS and care workers should be completed by about Easter. I don't have a massive problem if a relatively small number of athletes are vaccinated ahead of healthy 40 year olds, for instance.

[gghurdler]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/olympic...0810a313a9c294

Some details in the above article about proposals being considered, asking athletes to arrive 5 days before their event starts and leave immediately afterwards sounds like a reasonable compromise

[Ursus]

Let’s say the OG do go ahead on that basis.

No crowds. It’s not just the ‘atmosphere’ that will be lost but some of the pressure they bring which makes Olympic medals so sought after. Think how soul destroying Doha was - during competition and for the medallists - and multiply that up many fold.

No ‘Olympic experience’ for the athletes in terms of socialising / exploring the area.

No local economic benefit from hundreds of thousands of fans pouring into the city.

No real chance to showcase the city / pull together as London and the Gamesmakers did so brilliantly.

Etc

If it does go ahead it will be pretty anaemic compared to what we’re used to. We’ve seen from the indoor season that some athletes are in darned good shape so we can expect some great performances, but that’s not really the point. Whether something is better than nothing depends on your personal viewpoint. I’m sure I’d watch but not with anything like the same enthusiasm I usually would.

[philipo]

Its all far to early for the speculation taking place about the OG; I believe that it may be perfectly possible with good organisation, and cautious and competent acts by the home Olympic officials with protection for athletes and officials before and during the OG to hold this summers OG; as for crowds, i recall the negative comments before Doha which was arguably the highest quality WC ever. I am optimistic that there will be crowds to watch all events even if reduced in numbers. Heigh ho; we will just have to wait.

[Ursus]

Doha was indeed high quality on the track, but dead off it. As you say we’ll just have to wait and see, but this latest lockdown is inducing far more pessimism in me than my usual glass half empty state!