Road racing 2019

[larkim]

Just a thread to wrap up marathons, HMs etc on the road in 2019 - kick starting with the news that Mo is scheduling London in 2019, confirmed in AW today.

https://www.athleticsweekly.com/news...on-1039918955/

Presumably aiming for that then Doha in September.

[LuckySpikes]

Wasn't Mo talking a month or two ago about maybe doing the 10,000 in Doha? I don't know if it was as well as the marathon or only the 10,000.

I wonder though if the marathon training would take off the edge he had in the 10,000. It's about to become a tougher event I think with very young guys like Joshua Cheptegei, Rhonex Kipruto & Jacob Kiplimo coming through. Perhaps Kejelcha will give it a go too? He's been running half marathons.

So, what odds would you give to the following scenarios:

A. Mo runs only the 10,000 in Doha and then goes for a big pay day at Chicago (too soon after?) or New York?
B. Mo runs both the 10,000 and the marathon in Doha? (Rupp did pretty well at that double in Rio)
C. Mo runs only the marathon in Doha?

[larkim]

I'd suggest that unless they've actually seen better speed in 10k-relevant training sessions throughout his marathon training than when he was specifically training for track racing, it would be very risky to go for the 10,000m.

I run for my own sanity, and I know that if I train for a marathon (say, 45-50 miles per week) the end result is a) I can run a marathon quite well but b) my prowess at 10k is actually improved arguably more significantly. I wouldn't assume that that same logic applied to an elite marathoner where the mileage volumes will be significantly higher, but it wouldn't entirely surprise me if elite marathon training which included a decent proportion of speedwork too could be very close to being optimal training for a marathon as much as for a 10000m.

I think the lure of a medal is strong for Mo - but if he doesn't take his chance on a marathon medal in Doha I think he'd be daft.

[LuckySpikes]

I think you're right, Larkim. In the past Kipchoge has shown no interest in the marathon at World Championships so the gold medal could be very much up for grabs. Maybe though Kipchoge decides he wants to complete the set and he does compete in Doha ...

In either case, if I were Mo I'd do only the marathon in Doha. He's got nothing left to prove at the 10,000.

[larkim]

Elsewhere (i.e. facebook) there is a lot of cynicism about Mo's team murmuring about track returns etc. There's a lot of antagonism around with disgruntled "old school" runners from bygone eras fearing that the structural setup to support Mo is missing out on supporting the next tier and development etc. And then on top of that they are cynically expecting Mo (on funding) to simply chase the cash in marquee marathons and end up giving Doha (and Tokyo) a miss. Honestly I can't see that happening,

I think it misses the point that Mo is a medal chaser at heart, but there is so much deep seated resentment about individuals like Neil Black and Gary Lough, and UKA as a whole, that perhaps judgements are clouded. Cryptically there are observations about "I can't say any more, but it will become clearer in a few months" from individuals who are relatively well connected (though still "outsiders" from the UKA setup).

But if nothing else it keeps me interested in it - I love a bit of intrigue!!

[larkim]

Caught up with Farah on ITV with Jonathan Ross. He seemed (in his not very clear way!) to confirm he'll be on the track in Doha. I'm surprised.

[Sovietvest]

Lough and Farah are probably influenced by the fact Paula ran a pb at 10,000 after moving up to the Marathon. In turn, she always points to Kristiansen who successfully combined Marathon & 10,000. He's probably also done some 10k-type sessions that have surprised him by being as good as, or better than, the past (I suspect he always trained more for the 5,000, given how quick his 1500 was).

Paula never won a global 10,000 however and Kristiansen won hers in a less competitive era. If Farah wins another global 10,000 after the transition to the marathon training he will be doing something quite unprecedented. Geb never came close. Bekele didn't try it.

I wouldn't be surprised Farah ran a 10,000 pb next year, like Paula did, but I can't see him winning the 10,000 in Doha against the new generation. He was only ever a few tenths quicker over the last lap than the rest and I can't see how he can retain the same speed with older legs that have trained for the longer distance. HIs best tactic would be something completely new - leading and making it hard from a long way out.

As for what he should or shouldn't do? Whatever gets him most motivated and he most enjoyed. He owes us nothing and anything he achieves from now on is just further icing on a 12 tiered golden cake

[larkim]

With you on that last paragraph certainly. He owes us nothing.

My concern is broadly the same as yours about losing finishing speed trading off against better endurance. I'm just intrigued as to how it will pan out, and why him seemingly announcing his return to track (from his own mouth) didn't seem to get picked up in the media at all - I'm wondering if he talked it back after the show so the journalists have stood down on the subject.

If his endurance is better now than it was, it wouldn't be too big a leap to think that he could go for the tape tactically from 2k out instead of 600m out and still use his inherent speed to close things out.

But emotionally I want to see him win a marathon global medal.

[Sovietvest]

Me too - I'd much rather see him win in the Doha or Tokyo marathons. Assuming Kipchoge didn't go to Doha, I doubt Farah would face any other Major Marathon winners and might even be favourite. Who was the last male World or Olympic 5000m/ 10000m winner to also win a World or Olympic Marathon? Zatopek? Achieving what Viren, Geb and Bekele couldn't would really be something and would add much more to his legacy than another track gold.

[larkim]

If you don't already listen to the Marathon Talk podcast, a great couple of last episodes with long Steph Twell interviews about her Valencia experience. She's a really interesting interviewee, very open about her approach and the race day experience., worth a listen.

[larkim]

VMLM obviously this weekend. Big interest of course in Farah vs Kipchoge, but of course Farah has no absolute right to be considered to be the only contender with a chance of pipping Kipchoge to the finish.

And further down the fields, will be interesting to see how Hawkins races in his marathon comeback.

Could the women's race spring a fast time? Weather is looking far more pleasant than last year for the masses, but not sure how it will affect the leaders. Nonethless, looking forward to the best elite fields running London once again - and fingers crossed for an unlikely, but not-entirely-impossible Farah win?

[LuckySpikes]

Hmm, where did I get it in my head that Steph Twell was running the London Marathon? I was convinced I'd read/heard it but she isn't. On the British women's side, look for Hayley Carruthers to make a big leap (and possibly make the team for Doha?), very possibly into the 2:30/31 range. Her PB from Toronto last year is only 2:36 but she's continuing to make rapid progress, having only taken up running seriously about 2.5 years ago. She ran 71:57 at the Big Half last month.

Also, in other non-African wonderings, I'm very interested to see how Molly Huddle and debutant Emily Sisson go. Wouldn't be surprised with a 2:21 for either which, for Sisson, would smash the fastest ever American debut time (Kara Goucher's 2:25:56 although Jordan Hasay debuted in 2:23:00 at Boston). Sisson is in tip-top shape (67:30 half at Houston and 30:49 on the track this year) and coach Ray Treacy says she's made for the marathon. I've read that they will both aim for 71 at the halfway point.

Callum Hawkins has said he's aiming for 2:07. Ambitious! If successful at anything sub-2:07:13 he would go #2 on the UK all-time list.

[Ursus]

Lively spat between Farah and Gebre. The first of the two links following is more recent, the second reproduces a text from Farah verbatim (although I suppose here I should use “allegedly” somewhere) which is nasty and ridiculous in equal measure. The truth will no doubt out, but doesn’t reflect well on either, particularly Farah.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...-wife-at-hotel

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...ia-hotel-theft

[larkim]

I'm trying to avoid reading too much about the spat. Tittle tattle with no relevance to racing (despite Mo bringing it up in his own press conference).

Hawkins is being ambitious - that would be very impressive if he pulled that off, and he'd be placing well above quite a few of the overseas athletes who go with the 61:20-25 half way pace if he runs that evenly, as the others fall off the pace in the latter stages. I suspect he'll just dip under 2:10 though, but I don't mind him having a go!

I'm going to need to keep abreast of it over the radio or with phone updates in the car as I'll be driving unfortunately when the race is on.

[ibarnett01]

Hmm, where did I get it in my head that Steph Twell was running the London Marathon? I was convinced I'd read/heard it but she isn't. On the British women's side, look for Hayley Carruthers to make a big leap (and possibly make the team for Doha?), very possibly into the 2:30/31 range. Her PB from Toronto last year is only 2:36 but she's continuing to make rapid progress, having only taken up running seriously about 2.5 years ago. She ran 71:57 at the Big Half last month.

Also, in other non-African wonderings, I'm very interested to see how Molly Huddle and debutant Emily Sisson go. Wouldn't be surprised with a 2:21 for either which, for Sisson, would smash the fastest ever American debut time (Kara Goucher's 2:25:56 although Jordan Hasay debuted in 2:23:00 at Boston). Sisson is in tip-top shape (67:30 half at Houston and 30:49 on the track this year) and coach Ray Treacy says she's made for the marathon. I've read that they will both aim for 71 at the halfway point.

Callum Hawkins has said he's aiming for 2:07. Ambitious! If successful at anything sub-2:07:13 he would go #2 on the UK all-time list.

I'm sure I read Twell was competing this weekend, shame she is not. You can never take anything for granted with the marathon but you're right, Carruthers should smash her PB and I think she might even go 2:29. The domestic fields are strong and interesting this year with Doha in the foreground and 2020 not so far off. I'm particularly interested to see how Charlie Purdue goes given her storming second half performance in the The Big Half. In her own words she always feels rubbish for the first hour so she should come on strong later in the race and I think she can go close to 2:25.

Don't underestimate Hawkins, in his own words he doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who fell over, he wants Hutton's Scottish record and says he's in better shape than before the 2017 Worlds, so his motivation is high. Although his Lisbon HM performance was average he still has a 60min HM pb from 2017 and that easily equates to 2:07 marathon pace. Anyway I hope Hawkins and Dewi G can work off and with each other to produce 2 sub 2:10 performances. I still think Chris Thompson has a 2:09 marathon performance in him so would have liked to see him in the field. Finally, I hope someone with the strength and endurance of Robbie Simpson can convincingly improve on a 2:15 pb.

Weather conditions for Sunday look very promising for quality marathon running.