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Farah vs Rupp vs Chicago Marathon

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  • Farah vs Rupp vs Chicago Marathon

    Might as well start off a topic on the new board.

    Despite the presence of pacers, should be a good show down between the two former training partners. Rupp can be unpredictably brilliant, but has never outshone Mo in a major race. Will this weekend be any different?

  • #2
    mo will be there in the top 3/4 I think

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    • #3
      Only 3 or 4? Who do you think will take the top three spots?

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      • #4
        Originally posted by larkim View Post
        Only 3 or 4? Who do you think will take the top three spots?
        don't know all the contestants

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        • #5
          Bit harsh to suggest Mo won't win then if you don't know who will beat him!

          Here's the start list, down to 2:10 PBs

          Mosinet Geremew ETH 2:04:00 4
          Birhanu Legese ETH 2:04:15 5
          Dickson Chumba KEN 2:04:32 6
          Abel Kirui KEN 2:05:04 2
          Kenneth Kipkemoi KEN 2:05:44 7
          Galen Rupp USA 2:06:07 1
          Bernard Kipyego KEN 2:06:19 3
          Mo Farah GBR 2:06:21 8
          Geoffrey Kirui KEN 2:06:27 9
          Suguru Osako JPN 2:07:19 10
          Bedan Karoki KEN 2:07:41 11
          Ryo Kiname JPN 2:08:08 12
          Yuki Kawauchi JPN 2:08:14 13
          Mohamed Reda MAR 2:09:18 14

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          • #6
            now you have kindly given the guys in the top echelon I reckon that the idea that Mo or Rupp are sure to top the race is far from sure.

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            • #7
              mo is 8th fastest currently and the top 3 or 4 are over a minute faster and sometinmes more experienced. Are you stating that MO will win??

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              • #8
                Mo & Rupp shouldn't have it all their own way here. Geoffrey Kirui is already a seasoned performer and World Champion. Abel Kirui & Dickson Chumba both "know how to win in Chicago". With pacemakers being re-instated this year it could be difficult for Abel Kirui though since he thrives more in championship-style races. The two Ethiopians leading the entry list set those times in Dubai but they have also run well elsewhere so who knows what they could do. I'm expecting Bedan Karoki to have a breakthrough in the marathon at some point. He's always been there or thereabouts at the highest level on the track, country & at half-marathon.

                Looks like an intriguing race!

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by LuckySpikes View Post
                  Mo & Rupp shouldn't have it all their own way here. Geoffrey Kirui is already a seasoned performer and World Champion. Abel Kirui & Dickson Chumba both "know how to win in Chicago". With pacemakers being re-instated this year it could be difficult for Abel Kirui though since he thrives more in championship-style races. The two Ethiopians leading the entry list set those times in Dubai but they have also run well elsewhere so who knows what they could do. I'm expecting Bedan Karoki to have a breakthrough in the marathon at some point. He's always been there or thereabouts at the highest level on the track, country & at half-marathon.

                  Looks like an intriguing race!
                  very open race for sure; weather looks reasonable but could be windy in the last 5K and that will be the decider possibly. What I do think is that if Mo is in the lead group with a couple of miles to go he wont be easy to dismiss.

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                  • #10
                    If his training has gone well, I still think Mo is the class of that bunch. His London PB run off a suicidal first quarter / first half was only bettered by Kitata and Kipchoge, and A Kiprui was behind Mo that day, irrespective of what PBs suggest. With a 62:15 first half rather than 61:00 I'd have been expecting Mo to bin the 2:04-low 2:05 range and had a PB right up there with the others in the field at the weekend.

                    G Kirui is a spent force and Karoki has failed to impress me time and time again.

                    Perhaps just optimism on my part, but I can see a Mo victory in a 2:04 or possibly 2:03. Fingers crossed!

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by larkim View Post
                      ...
                      G Kirui is a spent force and Karoki has failed to impress me time and time again.

                      Perhaps just optimism on my part, but I can see a Mo victory in a 2:04 or possibly 2:03. Fingers crossed!
                      Do you mean Abel Kirui? G for Geoffrey Kirui has gone 1st Boston, 1st Worlds & 2nd Boston in his last 3 marathons. All without pacemakers though - might be significant?

                      Karoki has only done 3 marathons, it's true they've been solid rather than super-impressive. However, he is very accomplished otherwise - 26:52 for the 10,000 just last year and a string of top 6 finishes in global finals; sub-59:35 in his last 6 half marathons, #4 all-time and 2nd at Worlds in Cardiff 2016 beating Mo; also 2nd in the World XC in 2015. I'm not dismissing him yet.

                      I still need time to mull it all over before predicting results & times!

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                      • #12
                        No, I meant Geoffrey. 2nd Boston this year was that race of attrition in 2:18. On a good weather day he'd have been nowhere (IMHO!). I've got him down as someone with 1 good season in him (and he's had that), perhaps a good champs runner but in a paced event like Chicago I don't rate him.

                        Karoki doesn't feel like a winner to me, if he's shoulder to shoulder with someone at 20 miles he's be the best bet to come second

                        Having said all that, my marathon prediction expertise on the old forum was dismal so I could well be proven to just be a mo fanboy!

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                        • #13
                          Looking forward to this one. Mainly interested in how Mo performs both in terms of time and whether he can win. He will probably need to run at least sub 2.06 for victory but it should be an exciting race, especially in the final 10k.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by larkim View Post
                            No, I meant Geoffrey. 2nd Boston this year was that race of attrition in 2:18. On a good weather day he'd have been nowhere (IMHO!). I've got him down as someone with 1 good season in him (and he's had that), perhaps a good champs runner but in a paced event like Chicago I don't rate him.

                            Karoki doesn't feel like a winner to me, if he's shoulder to shoulder with someone at 20 miles he's be the best bet to come second

                            Having said all that, my marathon prediction expertise on the old forum was dismal so I could well be proven to just be a mo fanboy!
                            As a fan of mo's outstanding career I still believe he has a number of additional Marathons to run to develop consistency at 2.04/2.05 . The opposition on Sunday will be formidable and I stick with my original prediction that he will excel to finish in the top 3.

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                            • #15
                              Ok, neck on the line time!

                              1 Farah 2:05:28 ER
                              2 Geoffrey Kirui
                              3 Rupp

                              I see Rob Mullett is making his marathon debut today. Aly Dixon is running too.
                              Last edited by LuckySpikes; 07-10-18, 10:01.

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